The incredible run of economic data across the past few months has largely ended the debate about the relative merits of New Zealand's Covid-19 elimination strategy.
It worked.
We have spent less time locked down than nations that dithered.
Our economy has performed better.
Our Government got it right. Support packages like the wage subsidy have worked as hoped.
Defying the dire predictions of National leader Judith Collins there was no "tsunami" of job losses when the scheme ended.
Business and workers used the time to adapt to the new economic conditions.
Treasury's accounts are in better shape than expected and the nation will need to borrow less.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson deserves a pat on the back.
When the history is written he'll likely deserve more credit than that.
But, right now, we can't afford to pause for long.
First and most obviously, the immediate challenges of the pandemic remain live.
There is still time for a Covid-19 outbreak to undo all our good work before we reach the safety of a widely vaccinated population.
Then, looking out further, the recovery period will bring new challenges for policy makers.
New Zealand's success in dealing with the pandemic and our relatively strong economic position puts us at the forefront of the "normalisation challenge" facing the world's policy makers.
How long can the tap of government fiscal support and central bank money printing stay on?
How long can interest rates stay at record lows before economies start to overheat?
The official answer is probably: for some time yet.
So far central banks and most governments around the world have indicated an intention to lean heavily towards supporting their economies until they are absolutely sure recession risks have faded.
But financial markets always look forward.
If the vaccine rollout goes well and the world succeeds in putting Covid-19 behind it then there is an expectation that we will see a big rebound.
In New Zealand, thanks to the absence of the virus, we are already ahead of that curve.
Investors are watching the constant upward revision of economic forecasts closely and revising the time frames for Reserve Bank interest rate moves.
They may not be imminent but they are now forecast to come sooner rather than later.
Talk of negative interest rates is off the table.
Mortgage rates could rise from record lows sooner as expectations are priced in.
With the housing market and sharemarket running perilously hot there is worldwide concern about what happens when interest rates rise.
Fund managers are already poised to pull back to defensive investment positions.
That's not so easy for those who may have over extended with million-dollar mortgages.
We need to stay alert to a whole new set of economic risks.
So let's celebrate success. But let's not be a victim of it.
