Prime Minister John Key says there is at best a 50/50 chance of The Hobbit films staying in New Zealand, and the Government will put its best foot forward in today's meeting with American film company Warner Bros.
But Weta boss Sir Richard Taylor is more optimistic, saying he is 110 per cent sure the films will be made here because the alternative is not worth thinking about.
Mr Key and other ministers are meeting Warner Bros executives this afternoon to persuade them to keep the $670 million films in New Zealand.
"At best it's about 50/50," Mr Key said.
"I would love to tell you it is a done deal, but we are a long way away from that done deal ... We will put our best foot forward and see where it takes us."
Warner Bros is looking at overseas locations to make the movies after an international actors' boycott not to sign any contracts for The Hobbit until the film producers were willing to discuss minimum terms and conditions.
Warner Bros had yet to make a final decision, Mr Key said.
The Government is expected to discuss the industrial relations environment, the tax rebates on offer (currently 15 per cent on domestic spending), and the possibility of changing labour laws to make it less likely for workers to take up an employment dispute in the middle of the project.
"But I also think we need to be careful. New Zealand brings a lot to the table and I don't think we should simply get out the cheque book for the sake of it," Mr Key said.
Film workers addressed thousands around the country yesterday who had gathered in support of keeping the project in New Zealand.
"We can only hope that all sense will prevail in the coming week and we'll all see this reach a wonderful conclusion," Sir Richard said.
Asked about the outlook, he said: "It's about the fact it should be made here, we want it to be made here, so in my own heart I've got to stay positive. In my heart it's 110 per cent."
Weta Workshop was continuing with pre-production work, but Sir Richard had not had any confirmation that location shooting or post-production would take place in New Zealand.
Earlier, he read to the 2000-strong crowd in Wellington's Civic Square a statement from Sir Peter Jackson, who took a swipe at the Australian-based Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance.
"Turning us into another state of Australia under the sway of a destructive organisation carries the very real risk of destroying the great big heart that beats inside our films," Sir Peter said.
"Don't open up the door to an Australian trade union who will never put the interests of Kiwis first, and invest that union with the power to destroy everything we have built."
Sir Peter said the film industry was a family that loved its work. "That love ends up on the screen and I truly believe it sets our films apart from those made in any other country.
"I know your message to the studio will not go unnoticed. You have said loudly and clearly: New Zealand is where The Hobbit films should be made. Their creative DNA is here. This is where Middle Earth was born and this is where it should stay."
In Auckland a group of 250 showed its support.
An upset Sara Wiseman said actors had been singled out for personal attacks, "like something out of The Crucible".
"I don't understand how a very calm request from the committee to have a meeting for terms and conditions has suddenly become a war," she said.
Rally organiser Mark Harrison said local actors' eagerness to work on the films had been overshadowed by the union debate.
"Sir Peter said that these were his darkest days. We want to show our support for him and we want Warner to know that their investment in New Zealand actors and actresses will be safe," Mr Harrison said.
"There is no other place for The Hobbit. It belongs here."
50/50 chance on <i>Hobbit</i> says Key
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