Did Jim Sutton stand aside from Cabinet in a fit of pique over Winston Peters' appointment as Foreign Minister? Or was he simply pushed by Prime Minister Helen Clark for the fatal mistake of losing his seat?
These are important questions, particularly when the outgoing Trade Negotiations Minister could usefully say that one reason he was voted out is that he vigorously defended unpopular Government policies in the name of Cabinet collective responsibility - a standard he could also say (but doesn't) that the PM does not demand of the NZ First Leader.
Throw in the fact that Sutton fears Peters' appointment will jeopardise our trade prospects with Asia if the new Foreign Minister does not correct his anti-Asian image and all the ingredients are present for an intriguing political cocktail.
We won't know the truth of Sutton's demise for some time. Inevitably, it will leak out. That happens in the well-oiled corridors of power. Particularly when the Trade Negotiations Minister is regarded as a "sound player" even by National politicians.
What is true is that he has paid a big price for standing true with Helen Clark - even down to the absurdity of defending the speed with which her motorcade (in which he was a passenger) ripped through his rural electorate in time for her to catch a plane to get to a rugby match.
"People might say I don't do any work but they don't realise ... I don't resent that, I've had a wonderful run," he told me yesterday, reflecting on his six years in the trade portfolio. The politician who has worked assiduously to get New Zealand a seat at the complex inner circle that governs world trade, overcame Clark's caution to get her to agree to free-trade talks with China, and, pushed for a welter of other bilateral deals. He's still "exploring options".
He maintains he had the numbers to get back into Cabinet. He won't say why he did not stand his ground. Typically, he refused Clark's kiss-off - a top diplomatic post (more of which later).
"People say the loss of my electorate was a vote of no confidence in the way I did my portfolios. I don't think that's right at all - I'd have held my electorate if I had said 'Oh stuff the Government on school reviews' and gone for what's popular and attack the Government line outside my portfolios.
"In the end if you are prepared to abandon the public interest and attack your own colleagues - you might stay elected. But I've been around politics long enough to know that in the end what goes around comes around - you've got to work as a team and be guided by what's in the public interest."
He is blunt about the need for Peters to up his game.
The Foreign Minister has pledged to forge stronger links between New Zealand and the US, with which we still don't have a trade deal, or even negotiations, after four years of hard diplomatic graft.
"Politically, the most popular would be to get a trade deal with the US, but looking to the future ... the big area is Asia.
"I hope that he is able to persuade, in particular, people in Asia that he was only kidding with his anti-Asia remarks because he is the second-most known New Zealand politician in the world after Helen Clark.
"He's believed to be anti-Asian. He will say what he is - far be it from me to deny it. But he has some work to do. If he is not successful in that work he will make it difficult."
Sutton confirms he turned down the PM's offer to take either the plum Washington or Canberra posts. "Forever's a long time but, at this point, I've turned it down.
"I've never been wildly enthusiastic about political appointments to diplomatic posts - although having said that, in certain posts an experienced trade minister would add value.
"They're very worthwhile positions but for me that's not the best way to spend the next three years ... I've got other options to explore, including remaining a member of Parliament."
In any event two other former trade ministers: Philip Burdon (National) and Mike Moore (Labour) may be in the frame if the issue comes up again.
Peters has indicated he might put aside his opposition to political appointments if the candidate had a strong diplomatic or trade background.
Capital speculation suggests this volte-face has a self-serving element: Peters himself would not mind a posting to cap off nearly 30 years in domestic politics. But the Foreign Minister denies the rumour.
There have been issues on Sutton's watch. New Zealand's image as a fearless free-trading nation with strong commitment to liberalisation was undercut by the sub-optimal Thailand free-trade deal.
But what is often overlooked is his courage in standing against his colleagues and building a constituency for trade reforms early in Clark's prime ministership. This gave her a big springboard to pursue her international ambitions - but who ultimately has paid the price for courage?
<EM>Fran O'Sullivan:</EM> Courage took Sutton a long way
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