Meanwhile, economic growth remains precariously flat - the constant threat of recession is making life tough for business owners and adding a layer of financial uncertainty for workers as the threat of job losses grows.
Business confidence did bounce in October, according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey. Sceptics were quick to note the likely influence of National’s election win.
History suggests business is typically happier when National is in power.
Even ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner acknowledged it would be “a stretch to argue there’s been no election impact”.
But the new regime won’t be able to work magic with the big macro-economic forces we’re facing.
New policy will take time to implement, and for now, it is monetary policy that has a hold on market conditions.
“The first test will be whether these stronger numbers persist or peter out. Second, we will have to wait and see what actually happens to investment, employment, activity etc,” Zollner said.
That would in turn depend on whether firms’ expectations of higher activity came to fruition or not.
“It is fair to say that the historical data and experience suggests that people may overestimate the near-term impact of a change in government on the business cycle, in either direction,” she said.
The real game is being played on a much bigger stage.
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged for a second straight time, but left the door open to further rate hikes if inflation pressures should accelerate in the months ahead.
It was hardly dramatic stuff. But it was a reminder that until the Fed declares victory over inflation - nothing is going to move much at all.
If it all seems a bit painful, it’s worth remembering we have (so far) avoided the kind of major stock market meltdowns that have marked recessions in the past.
And we’re getting through this without the kind of sudden spike in unemployment that has disrupted and destroys the lives of thousands of workers in the past.
New Zealand’s unemployment data came in slightly weaker than market expectations, which was received as good news by economists looking for evidence the economy is cooling and inflation is abating.
“Nonetheless, the starting point for labour cost growth is high, and the RBNZ [Reserve Bank of New Zealand] will be wary of the risk that labour cost and core inflation does not cool as quickly as it would like. OCR [Official Cash Rate] cuts look a long way off.”
