Deutsche Bank picks fall in inflation rate to 1.7pc

Deutsche Bank predicts the consumer price index will rise 0.5 per cent in the December quarter, prompting a fall in the annual inflation rate from 2.4 to 1.7 per cent.

Statistics New Zealand releases the December quarter CPI figures next Thursday.

The bank said yesterday that its forecasts were in line with the market consensus, but marginally below Reserve Bank predictions in November of 0.6 per cent for the quarter and 1.8 per cent for the year.

In the September quarter prices rose 0.6 per cent, in line with market and Reserve Bank predictions. That brought the annual inflation rate down to 2.4 per cent, back within the Reserve Bank's 0 to 3 per cent target range for the first time in a year.

Deutsche Bank said the main factor in the latest CPI result, as in the September quarter, was expected to be in food costs, with domestic prices rising on the back of high world prices for agricultural commodities.

Lower fruit and vegetable prices would partially offset that.

Housing was another cost factor, reflecting higher construction costs and council rates.