Deficit tipped to hold at $4.14b, economists say

The annual trade deficit was probably unchanged in March as businesses and consumers spent more on machinery, oil and other imports while rising prices boosted the value of meat and butter exports.

The trade gap was probably $4.14 billion, unchanged from the year ended February 28, a Bloomberg survey of 10 economists found.

Statistics New Zealand is due to report the figures tomorrow.

The annual trade gap was at its widest in December, helping push the nation's current account deficit, which includes services and investment flows, to a record $9.39 billion in 2004.

The deficit may get wider as the economy continues to attract imports and as commodity prices decline.

"We've had a good run with prices," said Darren Gibbs, senior economist at Deutsche Bank in Auckland.

"A lot depends on the world economy. Prices may not keep rising at the pace they have been."

Prices of commodity exports rose 14 per cent in March from a year earlier, an ANZ index said.

World gross domestic product would rise 4.3 per cent this year from 5.1 per cent growth in 2004, the International Monetary Fund said in its semi-annual outlook published this month.

The economists said exports probably increased 6 per cent in March from a year earlier. The exports figure is provisional and will be updated on May 9.

Imports probably rose 6.1 per cent from a year earlier.

The annual trade gap, which was a record $4.2 billion through December, has averaged more than $4 billion the past six months as increased demand and higher prices for petrol, steel and other commodities boosted imports.

Gibbs said the gap might persist around this level for some time, before a slowing economy reduced demand for cars, appliances and other imports later in the year.

Economic growth would probably slow to 3 per cent by the year ending March 31, 2006, from 4.8 per cent in 2004, the central bank said last month.

Analysts monitor a rolling 12-month deficit because the monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted.

- BLOOMBERG