Consumer confidence treading water

Photo / Richard Robinson

Consumer confidence in November is static, matching the previous four months, according to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan measure.

The measure, which gauges confidence in the first two weeks of this month rose only one point to 114.5 from Oct, its 1008 interviews balanced by a two point lift in male confidence to 119, and a one point drop in female confidence to 110.

This is the lowest level of female confidence since August 2009.

Consumer views on current conditions also remain subdued while rising only one point to 93.4, which suggests spending behaviour caution is still prevalent.

"We take some encouragement from signs of a base forming," said ANZ chief economist, Cameron Bagrie.

"Last month saw a significant fall in consumers' perceptions of current conditions, driven by a sizeable drop in appetite to buy a major household item.

"Our initial reaction was that post-GST dynamics were partly at play but we'd need more information before a full assessment could be made."

This month, though perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy a major item rose from -7 to -1, there has been a four point drop in consumers' assessment of their current financial situation.

"This mix of improving (or less negative) appetites towards major item purchases but a weaker situation, flags that consumer perception continues to be weighed down by dynamics beyond GST noise or mere timing," Bagrie said.

Cautious spending is at odds with labour income growth and rises in commodity prices, but consistent with households reducing debt and a listless housing market.

"While house prices remain somewhat 'sticky' in that they are still expected to grow, they are still expected to decline in real terms, which historically is how house price cycles have panned out," Bagrie said.

Goldman Sachs economist Philip Borkin said the "massive 25 point drop" in the number of households reporting it a good time to buy a major household item in October suggested the GST hike had played a role.

"We were therefore looking for a rebound in November's results. This has not really transpired, with the index rising only 6 points to -1.

"Something else is clearly playing a role, reinforcing the cautious behaviour of households at present," he said.

- BusinessDesk / NZ Herald Online