Consumer confidence index 'perky' with a net 25% expecting to be better off next year

The most confident regions are Auckland and Canterbury.

Consumer confidence has eased in the latest monthly ANZ Roy Morgan survey but remains on the positive side of its long-run trend.

The survey index slipped five points to a "reasonably perky" 124, said ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie. Its long-term average is 118.

"Consumer confidence, job ads and our Truckometer are all decelerating from highs, but it's a natural transition as the expansion matures from strong growth off lows to moderate growth off a higher level," Bagrie said.

A net 7 per cent of respondents believe they are better off financially than they were a year ago, down from a net 12 per cent in April, and a net 25 per cent expect to be better off in a year's time, down from a net 31 per cent. The net balance of respondents who consider it a good time to buy a major household item remains at levels only rarely exceeded since the mid-2000s boom - a net 42 per cent, down from a net 49 per cent in April.

Expectations of house price inflation rose from 5 per cent to 5.5 per cent (6.7 per cent in Auckland).

"We're not reading too much into the move.

"It's next month's reading that could be telling, given recent announcements by both the Reserve Bank and Government to cool demand in the resurgent Auckland property market," Bagrie said.

"Future house price expectations readings will provide clues on whether the proposed measures are likely to bite."

Canterbury and Auckland were the most confident regions. "But it's really a story of across-the-board solidity, with headline confidence above 120 for all of the regional areas," Bagrie said.

The influences on households' cash flow were mixed, he said, citing recent lifts in petrol prices, continuing falls in fixed mortgage rates and pending drops in ACC levies.

There were also pending risks including a massive income hole in the regions affected by a low dairy payout.

Positive feelings

• Net 7% believe they are better off financially than they were a year ago.
• Net 25% expect to be better off in a year's time.
• Net 42% consider it a good time to buy a major household item.