KEY POINTS:
Optimists are prevailing over pessimists for the first time in the Bank of New Zealand Confidence Survey released yesterday.
The net percentage of respondents feeling the economy will get better in the coming year is positive for the first time since the survey began in 2005, BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said.
"Admittedly it is only just positive at 0.9 per cent from -0.9 per cent in the last survey in December. But it's in line with other surveys suggesting businesses are not greatly concerned about the outlook for the economy," he said.
He said the value in the BNZ survey was in the comments made by business people in key sectors.
Residential real estate was still firm and no one was worried about interest rates, according to survey respondents.
Comments included that the year was off to a good start, there were still lots of buyers but that more expensive and coastal properties were not selling as well.
"Commercial property continues to defy gravity. All this means is that when it eventually falls it will fall long and harder. Many investors will be severely burnt," another respondent wrote.
There wasn't good feedback from the packaging industry that Graeme Hart entered with the purchase of Carter Holt Harvey.
"One major company has gone into receivership in the last week and others are for sale. Continuing talk is of very cost competitive imported packaging through the industry. Further rationalisation is expected," one respondent wrote.
The sentiment in the timber processing industry was summarised by one writer who said "the high New Zealand dollar is killing the industry and seriously affecting other exporting industries in this country".
Another said sawmilling was "almost impossible."
Tourism was looking promising, particularly at the top end of the market.
- NZPA
