Asia, UK fuel immigration record

By JIM EAGLES

The controversy over immigration did nothing to slow the inflow of people during January which set a record high.

Statistics New Zealand figures released yesterday show that during January there was a net migration gain of 5600, significantly up on the 4700 recorded a year earlier.

The increase came on both sides of the equation. There were 300 more permanent arrivals and 600 fewer New Zealanders emigrated.

On a seasonally adjusted basis that equates to a net population gain of 3790, beating the previous high of 3640 set in March last year.

The main source of immigrants was Asia, with net gains of 1600 from China and 700 from Korea. But a more traditional source, Britain, also provided a net inflow of 1200.

During the month New Zealand had a net outflow of 1700 to Australia, but this was less than the 2000 recorded the previous January and well down on the 4900 in January 2001.

The January figures mean that over the 12-month period New Zealand had a net inflow of 39,000 people, equivalent to 1 per cent of the population.

Robin Clements, economist with UBS Warburg, sees no immediate sign of the inflow decreasing.

"With a large backlog of applicants, which will be processed under the old English language requirements, migration could stay high for some time yet."

Other figures released yesterday suggested soaring visitor numbers from Asia did more than the America's Cup to keep New Zealand's tourist industry growing in January.

Statistics New Zealand figures show that 220,900 short-term visitors arrived during the month, up 0.7 per cent on December, the second highest monthly total on record.

Overall, that represented a slowing down of the remarkable growth in tourist numbers seen in the past three years.

But for the sharp increase in tourists coming from Asia, numbers might actually have fallen.

During January there were more visitors from Korea (up 4000 or 28 per cent on the previous January), China (up 1700 or 28 per cent), Hong Kong (up 1000 or 64 per cent) and Japan (up 1300 or 9 per cent).

Those increases mean that in the past 12 months the number of visitors from Asia has risen by a fifth, or 91,000, compared with the previous year.

There was also good news for the tourist industry in the fact that the number of days visitors stay in New Zealand was up by 15 per cent on the previous January (to 6.12 million days) taking the average length of stay from 26 to 28 days.

However, economists warn that the underlying trend points to a slowdown in tourist growth.

Darren Gibbs, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, said the underlying growth in the past seven months was about 6 per cent which was "significantly below the double digit growth rates of 2000 and the first half of 2001".

Gibbs said a combination of the difficult international economic conditions, the rise in the New Zealand dollar and, at the margins, the loss of the America's Cup would mean "subdued visitor growth to continue over the remainder of the year".