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Figures out on Tuesday are expected to show inflation went from bad to worse in the first three months of the year.
The median forecast among market economists is that the consumers price index rose 0.8 per cent, propelled mainly by food and petrol prices. That would push the annual rate to 3.5 per cent, from 3.2 per cent in December and 1.8 per cent in September.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley, who is picking a 1 per cent rise in the quarter, said the main price increases were in the areas people could least afford to do without.
Food prices, most notably for dairy products, have been climbing under the influence of global food inflation.
"And petrol prices rose 5.5 per cent in the quarter by our estimates," Tuffley said.
He said construction and maintenance costs were likely to remain robust in the short term, though with residential building now struggling some relief could be expected later in the year.
Westpac economist Doug Steel said electricity and rents would have boosted the CPI by about a quarter of a percentage point between them.
There would be a seasonal hit from education costs as higher fees are set at the start of the academic year. But there would be offsetting falls in both international and domestic air fares.
Businesses' pricing intentions and the widespread cost increases reported in the Institute of Economic Research's quarterly survey of business opinion this week pointed to even higher inflation ahead, Steel said.
"We think annual inflation will be nudging 4 per cent by the September quarter."
A net 45 per cent of firms said they intended to raise their prices over the next three months, up from a net 35 per cent in September.
And a net 62 per cent expect their costs to rise, up from a net 49 per cent in September.
Both pricing intentions and cost expectations are at their highest level in 11 years.
