Muted stock price moves show optimism has been mostly priced in. Photo / AP
Lex OPINION:
Business appears to have shed all moorings to reality. Europe is plunging into a serious "second wave" of coronavirus. Yet record numbers of companies are beating profit expectations, with many upgrading earnings forecasts too. Some of the dissonance dissolves under scrutiny. A portion persists disturbingly.
Shell, BT and
Lloyds, businesses worth £100 billion ($195b) in total, all exceeded third-quarter forecasts. Notably, the UK's largest high street bank was buoyed by surging mortgages and lower than expected loan loss provisions.
Bosses are trumpeting the resilience of their businesses in the wake of a grinding downturn. Lockdowns closed shops, pubs, restaurants, hotels and airlines, and may do so again. Measures of economic activity recorded their largest declines ever in the second quarter. Yet earnings for many big listed businesses have been robust.
The rock-bottom comparatives of the second quarter are only one reason for this. Crucially, government stimulus has boosted banks and supported consumer businesses not reliant on customer footfall. These include online retailers of clothes, groceries, takeaway meals and white goods. Investors who initially modelled an across-the-board blow to business have sorted stocks into winners and losers. A shaky K-shaped recovery has begun.