Donald Trump’s return could hurt NZ, Australian agriculture, says Rabobank

Rural lending specialist Rabobank says the return of Donald Trump to the White House could disrupt New Zealand and Australian agriculture. Photo / Supplied

United States President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House could affect Australian and New Zealand agriculture, rural lending specialist Rabobank said in a report.

The bank said expected US policy shifts would create a “complex landscape” for the global food and agriculture trade.

The implications of these changes included potential disruptions to established trade relationships, shifts in export demand and rising costs for consumers and businesses alike – highlighting the delicate balance that will shape inflation, consumer behaviour and international trade dynamics.

At a macro level, the report says Trump’s return to the White House with a Republican majority signals a shift toward tax cuts, deregulation, high defence spending and tariffs, probably leading to higher inflation, slower gross domestic product growth and increased budget deficits.

Trump has repeatedly talked about a 10-20% universal tariff, possibly a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and even 100% on Chinese electric vehicles imported from Mexico.

“We expect the increase in tariffs to lead to a rebound in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth,” Rabobank said.

“The negative impact on growth could be mitigated by tax cuts and deregulation by a Republican Congress. However, this would increase the budget deficit and reinforce inflation, especially in combination with reduced immigration.”

The US Federal Reserve cut its official rates by a quarter of a percentage point this month, but Rabobank said further rate cuts could be put on hold next year.

US consumers and food companies will also face significant change.

“Inflation will pressure consumers to seek value, with an emphasis on private-label products, affordable luxuries and occasional dining out,” the report says.

Rabobank said Australian and New Zealand agriculture could face several impacts.

“A stronger US dollar and decreased US competitiveness in global markets would be a positive for Australian and New Zealand grain, oilseed, dairy and beef exports, particularly in the Asian wheat and dairy markets and global beef trade,” it says.

“However, increased US import tariffs on countries with large trade surpluses to the US, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan and China, create negative economic pressure on those exporters because they rely heavily on exporting to the US.

“This economic strain could lead to reduced spending power and lower Asian demand for Australian and New Zealand imports.”

Geopolitical shifts might also pressure Australia and New Zealand to align more closely with the US, potentially jeopardising exports to China.

“Therefore, the agribusiness sector in Australia and New Zealand should focus on profitability drivers, optimisation and diversification of products and markets to navigate change,” it said.

Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist covering the financial markets and the primary sector. He joined the Herald in 2011.