December migrant inflows just ahead of departures

The net inflow of migrants dwindled further in December.

The number of people arriving for at least a year exceeded those leaving for at least a year by a mere 320.

When adjusted for seasonal effects, the net gain was still only 530, down from 570 in November and 1570 in December 2003.

Arrivals have been holding up; the decline in the net inflow mainly reflects more departures.

Last year, net migration added 15,000 to the population, compared with 35,000 and 38,000 in the two previous years.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Ulf Schoefisch expects the net inflow of migrants to level off at a rate of about 8000 to 10,000 a year.

Together with natural growth in the population that implies population growth of just under 1 per cent, down from an average of 1.7 per cent in 2002 and 2003.

ANZ National Bank chief economist John McDermott said easing net immigration was a two-edged sword.

On the one hand, it reduced growth in consumption and the demand for housing. On the other hand, it meant fewer additional workers, putting more pressure on the labour market.

The largest fall in net migration last year was from Asia, down 60 per cent, thought to reflect fewer students in the wake of some high-profile language school collapses, and a higher dollar.

Net migration to Australia was 14,700, up from 10,300 in 2003.

Meanwhile, short-term visitor arrivals in December were 313,000, a record for any month.

That was 5.3 per cent up on December 2003, but that increase was dwarfed by the 17.4 per cent rise in New Zealanders heading overseas for short periods.