Construction sector lost more than 11,000 jobs in a year but economist says stability likely on the way

The construction sector filled far fewer jobs last month than it did a year earlier. Photo / Bloomberg, File

New Zealand shed more jobs in October and a bank economist says the country may not get healthy growth until the second half of 2025.

Across the year to October 31, construction sector job numbers fell by 5.3% or 11,141 jobs, Stats NZ said in its employment indicators today.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the construction sector ran hot a few years ago, at an unsustainable pace.

“Building consents started really taking off even in 2020. In time, that translated to more work and that was probably peaking around [2022],” he told the Herald.

“With the border closure, we weren’t able to bring in migrant workers for a period.”

But he said there were now signs that consent numbers had stabilised.

In September, the seasonally adjusted number of new consents rose 2.6%, after falling 5.2% in August.

Today’s employment indicators showed public administration and safety job numbers were down year-on-year by 7.2% or 12,671 roles.

And filled roles in administrative and support services were down 6.2%.

Gordon said it would be simplistic to think these declines were due just to public service cutbacks.

And many people a year ago were hired to work specifically on the general election, he said.

Stats NZ said that there were 2.36 million filled jobs last month, seasonally-adjusted. That was down 0.1% on September.

Seasonal adjustment takes into account factors such as Christmas hiring and spending sprees, fruit harvests, and other events which can be reasonably expected to boost sectors for specific times.

Gordon said the 0.1% decline was “a legacy of some pretty subdued or zero economic growth” in recent quarters.

GDP rose 0.1% in the March quarter but fell 0.2% in the June quarter, adjusted for inflation.

Gordon said Westpac expected GDP to fall -0.2% GDP for the third quarter. That quarter ended on September 30 but the data will not be published until December 19.

For the current quarter, Gordon was picking a 0.3% increase. He called that a return to modest growth.

“Healthier growth rates are probably more of a story for the second half of next year rather than the first.”

Gordon said job numbers in retail, transport and recreational services seemed to have stabilised in recent months, and health and education had grown.

In other data today, Stats NZ said the number of young adults in filled jobs was down by 12.3% compared to a year earlier.

That was down by more than 2000 from September.

Jobs in primary industries declined by 1.2% month-on-month.

The country last recorded a net gain of filled jobs in March.