Comvita is not well covered by the broking community and Blinkhorne is one of the few analysts around who follows the stock. Craigs Investment Partners and Comvita are both chaired by Neil Craig, who has voiced his opposition to the offer, but Blinkhorne said his research had no connection with the takeover process.
Blinkhorne said his $2.81 valuation was conservative, as he had deliberately valued Comvita's 13 per cent shareholding in Derma Sciences at 15c a share - about half its market value - to reflect volatility in Derma's share price.
Comvita is New Zealand's largest natural health products company and is a producer and marketer of manuka honey and bee-related products. It also has an Australian olive leaf extract business. Derma is listed on Nasdaq in the United States.
Like Comvita, Derma's products focus on the care and treatment of wounds.
"Today Derma is worth 34 cents a share, so you would need to take the $2.81 and add 15c to the valuation, so $2.50 a share is miles away," Blinkhorne said.
"My view is that the bid appears to be too light, so I will be looking to see where the independent report comes out at," he said.
The Cerebos offer values Comvita at $71.6 million. At $2.50, the offer price is at a 25 per cent premium to the one-month average price over the last month prior to the offer. Comvita's independent directors have issued a "don't sell" notice, pending an independent valuation report.
Chairman Neil Craig told investors the offer is "unsolicited, unwelcome, opportunistic and your directors have reason to believe this offer undervalues Comvita by a considerable margin". Cerebos plans to operate the company on a standalone basis, and says it will look to use its links into Asia to market the brand into one of the fastest growing regions in the world.
Te Puke-based Comvita last month said it expected to report a net profit of between $7.3 million and $8.2 million, with sales likely to be between $91 million and $95 million, for the year to March 2012.
