Tourism up again but fewer migrants

By BRIAN FALLOW

The net inflow of migrants continued to dwindle in June but tourist arrivals went from strength to strength.

Seasonally adjusted, permanent and long-term immigrants outnumbered emigrants by 760, 600 fewer than in May, Statistics New Zealand said.

The number has been falling for 13 straight months.

Annualised, the June quarter's net inflow of migrants was 12,400, not much above the 10,000 level at which the Reserve Bank expects it to level off by the end of the year.

The net inflow of 22,000 recorded for the year to June was little more than half what it had been the year before.

Most of the 20,500 decrease in net immigration between the past year and the year before was the decline in the arrival of non-New Zealand citizens.

ASB economist Kate Skinner said one reason was probably a change in Government policy last year. The Government replaced the general skills category, in which those who scored enough points were automatically granted residency, with an invitation-only skilled migrants category that gave added weight to employability.

"Lower non-resident arrivals are also probably in part due to an easing in the number of foreign students from the extremely high numbers seen in recent years," she said.

There was also a jump of 4400 in the number of non-New Zealanders leaving, partly a reflection of students leaving after completing their studies.

UBS chief economist Robin Clements said the decline in immigration would lead to a slowing in the housing sector and, ultimately, the wider economy.

"We have already seen house sales and building consents trend lower and the latest real estate data suggests house price inflation may be abating also."

This was partly why UBS believed future interest rate rises would be limited, "but it will not prevent a rise next week and it is likely it will not be enough to avoid another in September either", Clements said.

Tourist arrivals were up 2.6 per cent in June, seasonally adjusted, reversing a 1.5 per cent fall in May. They were 20.4 per cent higher than the Sars-affected levels a year ago.

The annual tally of 2.25 million was 10 per cent up on the year before.