Tourism numbers down, but still rising, says Ministry

The global recession and swine flu have prompted the Ministry of Tourism to downgrade its visitor outlook for New Zealand. Photo / Alan Gibson.

The swine flu pandemic and a global recession has prompted the Ministry of Tourism to revise international visitor number forecasts down, but it says the overall outlook is still positive.

International visitors are forecast to grow by an average of 2.5 per cent a year over the next seven years, down from last year's forecast of 4 per cent, the ministry said today.

By 2015 international visitor numbers are forecast to reach 2.9 million, up by 18.6 per cent or 455,000 more visitors than we get now.

Ministry research manager Bruce Bassett said that given the substantial impacts of the global recession and more recently the swine flu, or influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, the forecasts for tourism have been revised back from forecasts made last year.

"So, while the current forecasts are lower, the overall outlook for tourism remains very positive."

Over the rest of 2009 the ministry expected a drop of about 4.2 per cent in arrivals but after growth re-emerging after that.

"With a slow and uneven recovery from the global recession, we expect to see growth of around 2.5 per cent in 2010.

"This will be followed by a solid rebound in arrivals of 6.5 per cent in 2011 as the global economy further recovers and with a boost from New Zealand's hosting of the Rugby World Cup," said Bassett.

For the remainder of the forecast period a growth level of 3.5 per cent per year was expected.

The strongest markets over the period were expected to be Australia and China, which are forecast to provide two-thirds of the total growth.

- NZPA