KEY POINTS:
Growth in international tourism visitors is expected to hit its lowest level in 10 years this year, according to Ministry of Tourism forecasts.
Yesterday, the ministry released its annual growth predictions for the next seven years and while international arrivals are expected to grow from 2.46 million to 3.08 million by 2014 - an increase of 26 per cent - growth in the next few years is predicted to be almost stagnant. For 2008 the ministry predicts visitor numbers will grow by just 1.2 per cent. The last time it was as low was in 1998 when growth was negative.
Overall the average annual growth forecast has been dropped from 4 per cent to 3.3 per cent.
The ministry said the decision had been influenced by a number of factors including slower global economic growth, rising airfares, higher inflation and the high New Zealand dollar.
But tourism growth is expected to pick up with the Rugby World Cup coming to New Zealand in 2011 and then continue strongly after that.
The ministry predicted growth over the next seven years would mainly come from six key markets; Australia, China, Britain, US, Canada and India.
Australia is New Zealand's biggest market and Australian visitor numbers are expected to hit one million by 2009, up from 950,000 in 2007.
But it is China where a lot of growth is expected. China has already overtaken Japan as New Zealand's fourth largest market and by 2014 it is expected to almost rival the number of US visitors. Whereas the US is predicted to grow just 10 per cent to 237,000 people China is expected to grow by 80 per cent to 217,000.
Japan's falling numbers are also expected to continue with visitors from the Pacific Islands expected to outgrow the Japanese market by 2014.
