THL wary of forecasts amid slump in tourism

By SIMON HENDERY, Tourism writer

The country's largest tourism operator, Tourism Holdings, has shied from predicting how severely the international travel slump will hit its bottom line.

Chairman Keith Smith told shareholders at the company's annual meeting yesterday that THL was "unable to fully determine the likely effects" of September's US terror attacks and the collapse of Ansett Australia.

THL's 16 tourism businesses in New Zealand and Australia include Britz and Maui campervans, the Helicopter Line, Mount Cook Ski Planes and Wanaka's Treble Cone ski field. The company reported a $13 million bottom-line profit for the year to June 30.

"Up until the week beginning September 11 the outlook for the new financial year for THL was extremely positive," Mr Smith told about 150 shareholders at yesterday's annual meeting in Auckland.

"No one can crystal ball-gaze and determine the duration of the Afghanistan war and the continuing threat of further terrorist attacks. THL is monitoring the situation ... to ensure that we are able to ride out the tourism crisis, but more importantly, capitalise on the recovery when it occurs."

Despite the volatile state of the tourism industry and a drop in the company's share price from over $2 early last year to $1.20 yesterday, shareholders did not ask any questions of directors.

Some may have felt relief that the company was not prepared to forecast its next annual profit last year it predicted it would make $26.8 million, but downgraded that forecast twice before turning in its $13 million result.

Mr Smith said the company's after-tax position for the three months to September 30 was "marginally behind last year". Results from its New Zealand campervan and aviation businesses, and Treble Cone, were below last year because of a shorter and lower-yield ski season.

* Tourism New Zealand is pumping an extra $500,000 into its campaign to woo Australians for short holidays.

The money is part of a $2 million rejig of the Government-funded marketing agency's budget aimed at minimising the fall in visitor numbers following the US terror attacks.

The Australian initiative - beginning next month with supplements in Sydney and Melbourne newspapers - will build on an 18-month, $A6 million ($7.3 million) campaign started in February.

Figures deceptive

Guest nights in September were up 10 per cent on the same time last year, though the accommodation industry says the figures are too fresh to reflect the expected downturn following September's terror attacks in the US.

The latest accommodation figures, issued by Statistics New Zealand this week, show guests spent 1.9 million nights in short-term commercial accommodation in September.

Apart from Waikato, where guest nights fell by 2 per cent, all regions recorded more guest nights this September than in September last year. Auckland recorded the largest regional rise, up 18 per cent, thanks in part to the Rally of New Zealand.

Jan Hunt, chairman of the Auckland branch of the Major Accommodation Providers, said concern remained about a fall-off in bookings for February and March.