Overseas travel ticked off the holiday list

By SIMON HENDERY

Holidaymakers are shying away from overseas travel in droves, prompting fears that a tourism downturn predicted for the next three months will continue into the peak New Year season.

Tourism New Zealand, which has been monitoring trends after the terrorism attacks in the United States and the resulting international aviation crisis, says bookings for the normally busy January to March period are weak.

"People in the international market are not prepared to commit to a holiday at that point, and at this stage bookings are not looking very strong, and we would expect them to be made in this period now," said Tourism New Zealand chief executive George Hickton.

The gloomy situation was yesterday relayed to an Employers and Manufacturers Association briefing in Auckland.

Tourism NZ has warned the industry to expect a 10 per cent drop in visitor numbers between now and the end of the year - compared with the eight to 10 per cent increase that had been expected.

"Consumers are reluctant to commit [to travel] because they are not sure how big the war against terrorism is going to become. They don't want to be on the other side of the world if it escalates."

At the briefing, HSBC Bank of Australasia chief economist Dr John Edwards said New Zealand and Australia were strongly placed to recover from the economic effects of the terror attacks, despite the weakness of the US economy.

"There haven't been any numbers so far which have definitively suggested to me that September 11 has made things very much worse than they were before.

"The nature of our economies has insulated New Zealand and Australia to a large extent. We're two of the best-performing economies in the world and I expect we can keep up that momentum over the next six months, and I expect over that period we will begin to see the beginnings of a US recovery."

But Mr Hickton warned that "a recovery in the second quarter of next year is too late" for the tourism industry's peak summer season.

Cruise ship operators have so far cancelled 15 per cent of their planned programmes in New Zealand this summer.

The cruise industry had been expecting a bumper season this year, but the cancellations will bring it back to a similar level to last year.

Mr Hickton said there were concerns that some international wholesalers selling into New Zealand might go out of business as a result of the worldwide travel slump.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs deputy secretary John Wood said that although there were few reports of New Zealand exporters striking problems internationally as a result of the terror attacks, it was a worry that a large number of business people were cancelling trips to visit overseas customers.

That concern was repeated by Jack Stephens, Trade New Zealand's global market services general manager, who said the Trade NZ Dubai office was aware of at least six companies which had cancelled planned trips to Dubai.

Mr Stephens said a survey of Trade NZ's 37 international offices, which monitor 4000 exporters, showed that the current crisis had thrown up potential niche exporting markets for New Zealand companies involved in areas such as software, technology and security.

He said the London immigration office had been flooded with inquiries from New Zealanders living overseas interested in returning home.