KEY POINTS:
Political unrest in Fiji may have contributed to New Zealand residents making 900 fewer short term visits to that country last month than in November 2005, Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) said today.
The 14 per cent fall came as New Zealand residents left on a total of 147,600 short term overseas trips last month, up 2 per cent on November 2005 but still fewer than the 148,500 in November 2004.
At the same time 229,900 overseas visitors arrived in this country for short term stays, up 7 per cent on November 2005 and a record for a November month -- beating the 220,600 visitor arrivals in November 2004, SNZ said.
The 2.41 million visitor arrivals in the year ended November 2006 was a record for any 12-month period, passing the 2.404 million arrivals in the year ended June 2005.
The number of permanent and long term (PLT) arrivals exceeded departures by 2700 in November, compared with an inflow of 1700 arrivals in November 2005.
The seasonally adjusted series recorded a net PLT inflow of 1900 last month, up from 1200 in October, SNZ said.
Net PLT migration for the year ended November increased to 14,800, compared to 6200 in the November 2005 year.
Citigroup economic and market analysis director Annette Beacher said the acceleration in migration inflow remained a clear offset to a widely anticipated slowdown of domestic demand.
Migration inflow had a reasonable statistical relationship with housing activity, retail sales and the labour force, she said.
It was difficult to predict a slump in housing and therefore consumer spending for 2007 as long as the population continued to expand.
Along with buoyant business confidence shown in today's National Bank monthly survey, the migration figures left the Reserve Bank with no choice but to act and raise interest rates after a year of unsuccessful tough talk.
Citigroup considered a rise in the Official Cash Rate to 7.5 per cent, from the present 7.25 per cent, was on the cards for the Reserve Bank's review in late January.
Today's SNZ figures showed PLT arrivals for the year were up 5 per cent to 82,900, while PLT departures were down 6 per cent to 68,200.
During the year the net PLT inflow from Britain was 11,300, up from 9400 on the November 2005 year.
There were also net inflows from Fiji and the Philippines, both 2200, along with 2100 from India. The net PLT outflow to Australia was 20,500, compared with 21,300 in the November 2005 year.
Of the short term visitors last month, numbers from Britain increased 2000 (7 per cent) compared to November 2005, boosted by a second daily Air New Zealand service from London, SNZ said.
Visitor numbers from Australia were up 6500 (10 per cent), those from China were up 2200 (19 per cent), and those from Europe, including Britain, up 5300 (10 per cent).
Visitor arrivals from Japan declined for the 17th consecutive month, compared with the same month of the previous year, but the decrease of just 200 (1 per cent) in November 2006 was the smallest recorded during that period.
For the year to November 2006, compared to the November 2005 year, visitor numbers from Australia were up 21,800 (2.5 per cent), from China up 18,200 (21 per cent), and the US up 10,600 (5 per cent).
Visitors from Britain declined 15,800 (5 per cent) and from Japan numbers were down 17,800 (11 per cent).
Seasonally adjusted, visitor arrivals increased 1 per cent between October and November, following a 2 per cent increase between September and October.
- NZPA
