Mark Whitehouse writes editorials on global economics and finance for Bloomberg View
Will Donald Trump scare tourists away from America? Judging from the latest U.S. spending data, he might already be doing so.
Since Trump's election in November, businesses that rely on tourism have become increasingly concerned that the president's "America First" policies -- including bans on travel from selected Muslim-majority countries and extra vetting of visa applicants -- will make the country less attractive as a destination for all kinds of visitors. Some organisations and companies have even reported a decrease in bookings.
Now, the decline is beginning to appear in national economic statistics. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that during the three months ended in February, spending by foreigners on travel in the U.S. amounted to almost US$44 billion, down an annualised, inflation-adjusted 10.2 per cent from the three months ended in October, before Trump won the election. The decline, although small compared with what happened after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, was the largest drop during a comparable period since the global recession of 2008 and 2009.
To be sure, such short-term moves often reverse themselves, and Trump isn't the only factor that could affect tourism. The U.S. dollar, for example, gained about 2 per cent against the currencies of the country's trading partners between October and February, making travel to the U.S. a bit more expensive. That said, the historical correlation between tourism and the dollar's exchange rate isn't very strong. And of course it stands to reason that if the U.S. makes foreigners feel unwelcome, they won't want to visit and spend money.
