Low dollar tipped to lure more Japanese

The falling number of Japanese tourists may be reversed later in the year, tourism industry figures say.

Ross Keenan, chairman of Auckland-based Southern Travel Holdings - which organises customised tours within Australasia from Japan - said wholesalers were predicting at best no growth for 2006.

However, this would mean that falling numbers in the first three months would recover later in the year.

"I'd be hoping that by October, November we'd be seeing reasonable growth again," Keenan said.

The visitor arrival figures for last month compiled by Statistics New Zealand showed that Japan - the fourth biggest tourist market by head count - were down 3.3 per cent for the month and 6.2 per cent for the year to March.

The latest slip follows drops of 2.1 per cent in February and 5.5 per cent in January.

Perhaps just as important as pegging back this loss was the prospect that a change in the tide would be likely to last some time.

"Once the momentum does change it tends to be sustained for a period of time." Keenan said. "I'm not saying forever because we've learnt about that one."

Tourism New Zealand chief executive George Hickton said Japan, Korea and China had grown steadily during the past few years before being "checked back" last year.

"The one that would concern us most of those three is Japan because we know the Japan market is a bit fickle at times," Hickton said.

The high dollar and a growing choice of budget short-haul destinations for Japanese travellers had reduced the number of visitors coming to New Zealand.

The recent fall in the dollar would help, although this would take time to filter through to package prices.

"We're still reasonably optimistic that we can restore Japan to growth but we're going to have to do a lot more work out there with the travel trade," Hickton said.

There was also a new type of Japanese tourist to cater for; one looking to leave the coach party behind and travel more independently.

Hickton said: "I think it's just going through a bit of a transition at the moment but one which we've got to stay close to because they are now and will be in the future an important part of our market."

The prospect of growing visitor numbers is likely to be bolstered by a strong Japanese economic performance fuelled by domestic and export growth.

Jason Wong, director of economics and strategy at First NZ Capital, said Japan's economy was among the best globally with GDP growth of 4 per cent for the year to December.

"Unlike the previous decade, it looks like [there are] signs that the Japanese consumer is finally spending," Wong said.

About $30 million is being spent on advertising worldwide by Tourism New Zealand each year, mainly in Britain, the US, Australia and Japan.

Hickton said the Japanese market got about $3 million of this, which might seem significant to many New Zealanders but didn't go far in Japan.

"There has not been a significant increase in our promotional spend for some years and that's under review," he said.

"So let's hope something happens in this Budget."