Inbound tourists tipped to spend $10b by 2008

By SIMON HENDERY

International visitors are expected to pump almost $10 billion a year into the local economy by 2008, more than twice the 2000 figure.

The latest annual Tourism Research Council forecasts, released yesterday, predict 2.68 million overseas visitors will arrive in the country during 2008, compared with 2.02 million expected this year.

The council expects they will collectively spend $9.68 billion in the country, compared with $5.69 billion this year and $4.77 billion in 2000.

The trend for tourists to stay longer is also continuing. In 2000 the average stay was 20.1 days. That is forecast to rise to 21.9 days this year and 22.3 days by 2008.

Tourism Research Council chairman Sean Murray released the growth forecasts to the industry at the annual Tourism Conference in Wellington yesterday.

Murray, a senior executive with the country's largest tourism operator, Tourism Holdings, said much of the growth would come from emerging Asian markets, particularly China, South Korea and India.

While annual growth in arrival numbers across all markets is forecast to average 6.6 per cent a year between now and 2008, growth from Asia (excluding Japan) is tipped to average 10.4 per cent.

Domestic tourism is predicted to grow more modestly. New Zealanders will make an estimated 17.6 million domestic trips this year and that figure is expected to rise to 19.45 million trips by 2008, an annual average growth rate of 2.4 per cent.

Combined spending by international and domestic tourists is forecast to jump from $9.5 billion this year to $15 billion by 2008.

All regions of the country are expected to experience at least a 38 per cent increase in combined domestic and international visitor spending, but Auckland's growth is forecast to be the strongest, rising 74 per cent between now and 2008.

Murray said last September's terror attacks in the US had had little effect on the long-term forecasting of tourism numbers, which have bounced back after a slump late last year and early this year.

He told the Tourism Conference the strong growth projections presented the industry with a challenge "to think what these numbers mean".

Tourism New Zealand full-year figures show 1,955,702 visitors arrived in the year to June, up 3.8 per cent on the previous year. Average visitor spending rose 9 per cent to $3289.

Australian tourists spent the most - up 3 per cent to $932 million - but South Korean spending grew the most, up 86 per cent to $229 million.

The theme of this year's conference, organised by the Tourism Industry Association, is "A Balanced Approach" to tourism growth..

Tourism Research Council