Come next year's contract review, Tourism New Zealand chief executive George Hickton will be counting on the Aussies. One million of them to be precise or his political boss, Tourism Minister Damien O'Connor, will want to know why.
In Sydney this week, Hickton confessed the one million mark had been his secret goal for Tourism NZ's new $6 million What's On campaign to pull Australians across the Tasman. O'Connor thought it was a great idea to make it public. "So come across," the Tourism NZ chief urged Aussies at the launch at Sydney's harbourside Museum of Contemporary Art, "or someone else will be coming to see me at the end of the year".
Getting Australians to NZ is vital for the tourism industry. It is our biggest and most accessible pool of visitors and contributes more than any other market to the sector's foreign earnings - almost $1.5 billion in the year to last December.
New Zealand is Australians' top overseas destination, with more than 880,000 arrivals in the last May year. Surveys indicate 94 per cent intend to holiday here again.
But raw figures disguise more challenging realities. Statistics indicate that of a total 879,500 Australian arrivals in the 12 months to last April, 336,800 were on holiday. Many more were visiting friends and relatives, coming for business or other reasons.
Surveys have also shown a decline in Australian intentions to holiday across the Tasman. Budget airlines and cheap domestic and international flights have made competition even fiercer.
Within Australia, rivalry between states and regions for tourism dollars, and a trend towards more short breaks rather than long holidays, is a problem and a potential blessing for New Zealand.
Tourism NZ research indicates that Australians increasingly regard NZ as almost a domestic destination, suitable for long holidays of seven days or more, or for short breaks that encourage subsequent visits. O'Connor said that of the 4.7 million Australians who travelled regularly, an estimated two million fitted into New Zealand's target market of travellers "who want to get out and explore".
"The fact is, New Zealand has changed dramatically in the past 20 years and many [Australians] are just not aware of what contemporary NZ looks like."
For New Zealand, tourism itself is changing. Direct and online bookings are increasing, and there are movements within key sectors. The big backpacker market is moving upwards and, in some cases, away from traditional hostels, using high-limit credit cards and often favouring activities over accommodation, seeing backpackers in campervans and cheap-end rental cars rather than buses.
Hence the strategy behind the new campaign, which will focus on the key markets of Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Most Australian holiday-makers at present travel to Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington, Queenstown and Rotorua, more than half travel independently. Almost two-thirds take self-drive holidays, about 20 per cent fly within the country, a fairly constant 70 per cent visit secondary regions, and most will stay between seven and 14 days.
Hickton wants to change that: "We want to change the perception from 'we'll go to New Zealand some day and when we do, we'll do it all'."
Tourism NZ's new campaign intends not only boosting total numbers of Australian visitors, but bringing more of them back - especially to increase cashflows in the relatively lean autumn and spring shoulder periods - and to attract them to different regions. A key will be short breaks, driven by perceptions of the kind Hickton says New Zealanders have of Australian holidays: Noosa, Sydney or Melbourne, rather than simply "Australia".
"There is good reason for some optimism. The old perceptions of rusting Morris Minors chugging through flocks of sheep are shifting, measured anecdotally and through surveys. The 'last one out turn off the lights' jibes are fading ... with the baby boomers, driven by factors ranging from greater economic and business integration to a younger generation that sees what it wants without the baggage of sheep jokes."
The cross-flow of products and people engaged in business has been a key mover in lifting the bar on New Zealand's transtasman profile. Associations between goods, people and imagery through such successful campaigns as 100 Per Cent Pure have lifted awareness of the country and its diversity.
Trade NZ surveys tracking Australian business perceptions through the 1990s showed our transformation from a "mediocrity" to respect as a supplier, outranking or matching local companies for fast delivery, price, product quality, product range and supply reliability.
Significantly, Trade NZ found that at the beginning of the decade New Zealand was more popular with older consumers; by 1998 the nation's goods were more popular with younger Australians.
Last year, a transtasman study made for the Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum found that Australian companies saw New Zealand as more flexible and innovative than Australia. In social terms, Australians have noted the presence of women as governors-general, prime ministers and senior business executives.
A mood-of-the-nation poll by strategic research and consultancy firm Crosby Textor found nine out of 10 Australians considered Kiwis more likable, reliable, honest and trustworthy than any other nationality. The danger is that unless spice is continually added to the mix, we could languish in the worthy-but-dull basket.
Tourism NZ surveys reflect this. Its most recent research warns that in the face of tough competition New Zealand needs to provide Australians with more compelling reasons to cross the Tasman. Some continue to see us as somewhat "backyard" cousins, as a slower nation than Australia, colder and with a strong imagery around snow.
Perceptions of New Zealand seemed to be more modern than the previous survey in 1999, and the country is more favoured as a short-haul holiday destination, but opinions still tend to be polarised: a mecca for extreme sports and a high-quality alternative to European skiing on one hand, but similar to Tasmania (quiet, tranquil) on the other.
Research also showed limited "brag value" in a transtasman jaunt: "For Australian travellers, New Zealand is not aspirational, but appealing."
Arts and good living - especially wine and increasingly food - have lifted profile and appeal. In June, for the first time, Tourism NZ took a "New Zealand Experience" designed and built by television's Discovery Network to the huge Sydney Good Food and Wine Show, pumping the quality and sophistication of the nation's produce and the diversity of its regions.
Wine has been one of New Zealand's great success stories in Australia and one of its great promoters. The industry also has great tourism potential in its own right, through the growing popularity of wine tours and the high profile of key growing areas such as Marlborough and interest in emerging pinots from the Wairarapa.
In the past decade, wine exports to Australia have rocketed from just over $6 million to $88 million. Carol Ruta, a pioneer of New Zealand wine promotion who has been running Kiwi wine shows across Australia for 10 years, has seen interest rocket beyond trade and enthusiasts.
"I think most people probably thought of New Zealand 15 years ago as muller thurgau and as really tannic reds, which were not particularly good wines," she said. "Even up to five or six years ago, a lot of people said, 'Oh my God, I didn't know New Zealand made wine'."
But the popularity of New Zealand wine - matched with food - has been reflected in the spread of capacity-packed shows in Sydney to similar events in Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and Perth.
"I think the whole perception of New Zealand has changed dramatically over the past five or 10 years," she said. "It's now seen as a fantastic holiday destination - the scenery is so beautiful, and now the wine and food side of things has upped the ante."
And while most travel stories in the Australian media continue to focus on scenery, the appeal of luxury lodges and diversions such as the cafe society in Wellington are emerging.
Last Christmas, Christchurch made the Australian's list of best travel discoveries of the year, with Susan Kurosawa, one of the nation's best-known travel writers, noting: "This city has an arty buzz, a lively cultural calendar, biennial arts festival, great cafes and hip bars."
O'Connor, a former Australian resident and a whitewater rafting operator who once featured on the cover of Lonely Planet, believes that time, opportunity and technology have helped break down many traditionally negative perceptions of New Zealand.
But he warned: "We have to keep pushing the boundaries. Okay, we have mud pools and bungy jumping, but where do you go from here?"
What's wanted
Tourism NZ wants to push Australian visitor numbers up by 120,000 (to 1 million) in the next 12 months.
At the moment, the 880,000 Australians who visit annually are worth $1.5 billion to the economy.
New Zealand is Australia's biggest overseas destination but intentions to visit or the priority of a Kiwi holiday are slowing.
Many think of a Kiwi holiday as a long, once-in-a-lifetime destination.
Tourism NZ hopes to build on a trend that sees New Zealand as a "domestic destination" for repeated short-break holidays.
What they do
* Most Australian holiday-makers travel to Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington, Queenstown and Rotorua.
* More than half travel independently.
* Almost two-thirds take self-drive holidays.
* About 20 per cent fly within the country.
* About 70 per cent visit secondary regions.
* Most stay between seven and 14 days.
C'mon Aussies, says Tourism NZ
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