Where is it? The Elon Musk-owned Starlink is supposed to deliver text-via-satellite service by the end of this year. Photo / Michael Craig
There are signs Elon Musk’s Starlink will not be able to deliver its “celltower in the sky” service by the end of this year – putting its phone company partners, who have repeatedly promised that timeframe, in an awkward spot.
The idea is that Musk’s swarm of low-Earth satellites can connect to a regular smartphone, offering a new connectivity option that all but eliminates mobile blackspots – with texting service available by year’s end, with voice and data to follow next year.
At least two of Starlink’s partner telcos have switched their messaging away from the earlier-promised launch by the end of 2024.
One NZ now says it will launch texting-anywhere “as soon as possible” as it monitors the unexpectedly choppy regulatory waters that Musk’s firm has hit in the US.
Like Optus across the ditch, the Kiwi telco has quietly removed timeframe references from the Starlink Direct to Cell section of its website.
“We are working closely with SpaceX to bring this game-changing new technology to New Zealand, which will make Kiwis safer and provide coverage like never before. We’ve made all the necessary preparations to the One NZ mobile network and are ready to begin testing here in Aotearoa as soon as SpaceX receives FCC clearance in the US,” a One NZ spokesman told the Herald earlier today.
“We’re watching the US process and know that competitors of T-Mobile – SpaceX’s US launch partner – are doing what they can to raise issues and delay launch. In New Zealand, we have all the necessary local approvals and consents and are ready to begin testing the network straight away once the US issues are resolved, a matter outside of our control,” he said.
“In the meantime, SpaceX continues to launch Starlink Direct to Cell satellites on a weekly basis, with 168 now in orbit, compared to just three launched by a putative rival service [Spark and 2degrees partner Lynk].
“One NZ remains committed to launching an SMS service via Starlink Direct to Cell satellite as soon as possible. Like previous 3G, 4G and 5G rollouts, we’ll do this in a careful and iterative manner, handset by handset, once field testing in New Zealand can take place.”
An Optus spokesman told the Herald on Friday: “Optus is working with SpaceX while they engage with the regulator in the US regarding the conditions for conducting local testing and we’re re-evaluating our timelines to deliver this product.”
While local regulators, including New Zealand’s MBIE (the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment), have signed off on Starlink’s pending Direct to Cell service, the LA-based firm (a fully-owned subsidiary of SpaceX) is still waiting on a necessary clearance from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for its new global service – and that it now hangs in the balance whether the necessary approvals will come through by year’s end.
The green light has been delayed by claims that Starlink’s Direct to Cell will cause interference with existing mobile networks, with appeals filed earlier this month.
In March, an FCC panel voted in favour of a supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) regulatory framework. But SpaceX said it also needed a waiver for the regulator’s “out-of-band emissions” limits.
In the US, where Starlink is partnering initially with T-Mobile, rival telcos AT&T submitted to the FCC on August 14 that it should reject Starlink’s waiver.
In short, they say if Starlink’s Direct to Cell service is allowed out-of-bound emissions that are nine times the normal spillover (as they frame it), Musk’s new service will cause interference with their existing mobile networks – with an 18% reduction in network downlink performance.
Two rival satellite firms, Ominispace and the Apple-backed Echostar (which enables the SOS via Satellite feature for iPhone 14 and 15 series handsets) also asked the FCC to block SpaceX’s waiver.
Starlink submitted a response on August 29, which the FCC is considering.
Whatever the technical merits of the anti-waiver push, Ars Technica said the process had “thrown a wrench” into Starlink’s mobile plans.
Satellite expert Jonathan Brewer was sceptical of the text-in-2024, voice-and-data-in-2025 timeline when One NZ first announced its Starlink partnership on April 1 last year, saying, “They’ll be lucky if they have calling working by 2026.”
This week, he added that if the FCC does consider the objections valid, they could be tricky to address.
“Both Verizon and AT&T are claiming that if T-Mobile is allowed to use Starlink for supplemental coverage, their networks will suffer interference. I have no idea how they might resolve interference concerns but I do know that adding a filter to a cell tower is a practical but expensive measure. Adding filters to satellites is very, very expensive, and adding them to existing cellphones is impossible,” Brewer said.
The spat reminded Brewer of a local interference case. In 2009, Vodafone NZ (now One NZ) took Telecom (now Spark) to the High Court shortly before the commercial launch of Telecom’s “XT” 3G upgrade, alleging interference with its existing network. The case was settled after Spark agreed to install filters that cost around $1000 per cell tower.
Chief executive Jason Paris earlier said One NZ had exclusive rights to Starlink Direct to Cell for a period, but would not give a timeframe.
In a September 1 post to X, Musk said T-Mobile would have exclusivity “for the first year, then other carriers thereafter. We are starting off working with one carrier in each country, but ultimately hope to serve all carriers”.
SpaceX currently has around 6350 satellites in orbit, including 168 larger, next-generation models capable of supporting Direct 2 Cell – easing early fears that a failure to launch enough birds would delay the service, even though the beyond-schedule launches could mean more limited initial service than originally anticipated.
Spark and 2degrees have, for now, thrown in their lot with early-stage Starlink rival Lynk, which has launched a handful of satellites. Both have carried out successful satellite-to-smartphone text and voice call trials, but have yet to put a timeframe on a commercial launch.
Lynk has has small amount of venture capital, and is leaning on anchor customer contracts. But there is also a multi-billion dollar effort that gearing up: The Amazon-owned Kuiper, which will put more than 3000 satellites in orbit (so far, it has launched two test birds, but preparations continue including buying land and spectrum licences in NZ).
Even Musk’s biggest fans have acknowledged the entrepreneur often misses product launch deadlines for his various companies.
Starlink could not be immediately reached for comment. Its Direct to Cell website still says text is “starting 2024″, voice and data and “IoT [internet of things or smart gadget connectivity] “starting 2025″.
“The service will definitely be live this year,” Paris said of Starlink Direct to Cell during a Herald interview in April.
But even at that point, he cautioned it would be a phased introduction.
“You’ll have mobile-to-satellite text capability. It’ll just depend how much of any given hour you will be able to text. The more satellites that you have in space, the more time that you are connected.”
Starlink’s “swarm” approach means as one satellite disappears over the horizon, another takes over – but more will have to be launched for continuous coverage.
After a successful test message this year and ongoing launches, Paris saw 45 minutes of text coverage an hour, with about 15 minutes of no signal spread across the period, in 90-second lots.
One NZ has already had one reframing of its Starlink Direct to Cell marketing.
From April to July 2023, the telco ran a “100% Mobile Coverage” campaign promoting the partnership. At the start of July, the telco received a “stop now” letter from the Commerce Commission.
The regulator claimed the campaign was potentially false or misleading because it implied voice, text and mobile – notwithstanding that Paris had highlighted the text-only nature of the initial launch at the April 1 announcement.
One NZ said it disagreed with the regulator but also that it had already planned to wind-down its initial campaign in favour of “Coverage like never before, launching 2024″ tagline.
“We’ll clearly display the disclaimer ‘TXT only launching by end of 2024′ and, where relevant, ‘Text delivery within minutes’ on-screen when we advertise,” One NZ spokesman Matthew Flood said.
Starlink’s Direct to Cell is separate from its dish-based broadband service – which is offered to Kiwi consumers via direct sales, and to business customers through resellers Spark, One NZ and 2degrees.
The Commerce Commission recently said the number of customers with satellite connections in NZ - overwhelmingly Starlink - increased from 12,000 to 37,000 last year, with around 34,000 in rural areas for 14% rural market share.
Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald’s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.
The telco says the service will quickly expand over 2025.