Predicting the future is for the brave and reckless. I was reminded of this when watching the IRB Sevens on television. Remember the prediction that television was going to kill sport? We'd all stay at home to watch and the game would be played to empty stands. Anyone who watched Fiji's win in Wellington saw that stab at the future mocked by crowds of Vikings, cops, brides and superheroes all having the time of their lives.
Rather than kill live events, screens are giving them new life. I can watch concerts, games and festivals in a bar on plasma and on my phone, and video shorts provided by my son Dan on my Mac. I can catch replays on the big screen at any stadium and, in New York, on massive screens lofted high in Times Square.
The screen has lifted events like the Olympics to join the mega stars of the entertainment world. That's why screens are key players in what I call the Attraction Economy. Forget the Attention Economy, where the job was to cut through and grab the attention of consumers. Today's Attraction Economy is a much tougher proposition, where consumer control is the reality.
The implications for the future are profound. The smart companies will do more than offer consumers control; they will be fixed on insights, ideas and creativity to make emotional connections.
As computer scientist John Seely-Brown has suggested, the best way to predict the future is not to look ahead, but to look around. The future is here, hidden in the present.
Here are 10 ideas that may shape the Attraction Economy. Reckless? Your call.
1. EMOTION AT HEART OF THE FUTURE
Humans live on their emotions. Emotions have shaped our past and they will guide our futures. Science had us fooled for a time that rationality was what counted, but the numbers didn't add up. It turns out 85 per cent of all our decisions are emotional ones. We work on intuitions and feelings. That's why people often buy a car because of its colour rather than its performance specs. It's why an over-sized gorilla built out of ones and zeros can bring tears to the eyes. And why Disney is patenting a device that selects songs according to your moods. Look out - more industrial-strength emotion coming through.
2. STORY-TELLERS - THE NEW HEROES
Hollywood whingeing on about the decline in audience numbers over the last year is pathetic. Rocky VI? Give me a break. This tired series of sequels and prequels just rehash what we already know from the originals. Why will Toa Frazer's Number 2 be a big hit? Because at its heart it had a powerful and authentic story. I agree with Danish futurist Rolf Jensen: "The highest-paid person in the first half of this century will be the story-teller. The value of the products will depend on the story they tell."
3. THE SIZZLE OF SISOMO
Sight, sound and motion are the three most powerful elements of compelling communication on screen. It was sisomo that made the movies and television the centre of our entertainment world. Technologists might still talk integrated digital network services; for consumers, it's just sisomo. Sisomo is moving onto screens of all shapes and sizes: mobile phones, computers, outdoor billboards. Sisomo is a new name for a new world where screens are everywhere. We will see TV become more game-like, mobile phones more TV-like and in-store screens more movie-like. Watch out for the emergence of more and more screens with serious sisomo capabilities.
4. IDEA FOUR IS A MYSTERY
Mystery combines with sensuality and intimacy to transform brands into Lovemarks. Mystery is the secret ingredient that gives our lives surprise and delight. People don't want to understand everything - that's why we move away from know-alls at parties.
As we Google our world into submission, I predict that experiences drawing on mystery will earn a premium. The games industry is already onto it. So are those mystery mavens in Berlin, starting restaurants where diners eat in the dark. Mystery is not remote and intimidating. It is inclusive, compelling and creative.
5. A BIG YES IN THE DIRECTION OF GPS
The local/global debate has become the soap opera of business. The truth is that if you get the local right, taking it global will follow. As knowing who you are becomes more important, so knowing where you are can be left to the machines. The Global Positioning System - a smart box that can lead you to hell and back without singeing the paint work - is waiting in the wings for a sensational entrance.
Today it ushers harassed citizens around town, but wait for it to link up with Google, the internet and a bunch of smart minds. GPS is set to become the virtual guide we have only dreamed about.
The black box that will get you to the best hotels, the most interesting sites and the best-priced stores. GPS walking tours around Queenstown with a restaurant pre-booked. Let me at it.
6. MAKING A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE
One of the most encouraging trends is that young people are getting older. Encouraging because they have a fantastic attitude towards the world. Generation Xbox is used to thinking on the run, dealing with surprises and putting away the bad guys. I expect them to take a far tougher stand on ethics, responsibility and sustainability from both outside and within business.
Don't expect this new work force to march to the old corporate beat. Tomorrow's businesses will have to prove themselves to these demanding young people. The most talented will choose who they want to work with based on more than salary and benefits. Is your business making a real difference? What's your contribution to making the world better for all of us?
7. GO WHERE YOUR ART LEADS YOU
Artists are key participants in the Attraction Economy. Technology can only take us so far; to make emotional connections we need the passion of art. Young people have already sensed this shift in direction. How many kids do you know who are studying photography, film, design, fashion, acting, dance and music? Already we can see the beginning of what will become a major trend: the partnership of artists and business.
The signs? Here in New Zealand my artist friend Billy Apple is working with apple growers to produce the - you guessed it - the Billy Apple. Japanese artist Takashi Murakami has designed products and store interiors for Louis Vuitton and Marc Jacob. Expect this trend to permeate everywhere. Art in the supermarket? Andy was right.
8. STORES AS PLEASURE PALACES
People love to shop. But the shopping experience often makes you wonder why you bother.
Now savvy stores are turning shopping into entertainment attractors. The art and science of retail is reaching through the plate glass window and out into the world.
Stores as the ultimate arena for great ideas to play in. Ice rinks and video games for the kids, cooking demos and opera-singing bakers, shopper-boppers dancing to a live band and floor-to-ceiling video screens.
I've seen all these entertainments over the last six months. This is only the beginning.
9. THE DIY CONSUMER
Now consumers have a taste of their own power, you can guarantee they won't be going back into the box. The opportunity to design their own trainers, put sites up on the internet, mix their own music CDs and make state-of-the-art movies and invent characters in games is irresistible. Telecom's Rubbish Film Fest called for people to send in their own 20-second sisomo on 3G mobile phones. More than one million people checked out the results on the website. Can-do consumers will expect to cut and paste, mix and mash. They will demand ideas that are fast, unexpected and involving. Give them room.
10. THE CUTTING EDGE
We live on the edge of the world. But now what used to be the tyranny of distance has been reinvented as room to manoeuvre. Free of histories that can only repeat themselves, unfettered by mega corporations and small enough to move quickly, New Zealand-on-the-edge is perfectly placed to develop inspirational ideas that will shape this century.
As a metaphor for magic, the idea of edge captures our potential to design, innovate and market. Darwin got it when he said "nature favours the extremes". Great things have always happened at the edge and edge is a one-word equity for New Zealand. Being first in the world to get up every morning has never looked so good.
The days of consumers passively accepting whatever is put in front of them have gone. It's a transformation from "view" to "do". The new consumer wants to be attracted by involving experiences that entertain and speak to the heart. This is as true in the supermarket as it is in a high-end medical practice. No one is exempt.
Let's not end up like Peanuts' Charlie Brown who said, "When my ship comes in I'll probably be at the airport".
* Kevin Roberts is chief executive worldwide of ideas company Saatchi & Saatchi, a creative organisation of 7000 people in 82 countries.
He has written about brands in Lovemarks, and his latest book, Sisomo: the Future on Screen, explores the central role of sight, sound and motion in creating emotional connections in the market. The book is distributed by Reed Publishing (NZ).
Mr Roberts is in New Zealand to launch Sisomo: the Future on Screen.
<EM>Kevin Roberts:</EM> Ten ideas coming to a screen near you
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