Chorus could step up its annual per-share dividend to about 40 cents, once it has finished rolling out its share of the ultra-fast fibre network, says First NZ Capital analyst Arie Dekker.
Investors are starting to focus on the telecommunications lines company's material free cash flow from the year ending June 2021 and "the scene is set for Chorus to reset the dividend, rewarding patient investors," Dekker says.
Chorus paid a total of 22 cents per share in the year ended June and is forecasting that will lift to 23 cents this year.
"Our analysis highlights a step up to about 40 cents per share is possible but we can similarly demonstrate factors that might negatively influence confidence in (dividend) sustainability," Dekker says in a note.
"The prospect of network competition from wireless has the potential to undermine (the) post-2020 dividend reset," he says.