Asia hotbed for 3G mobile data, users

The Land of the Rising Sun is likely to be the hotbed for third-generation mobile development over the next five years and researchers are presenting forecasts for the Japanese market reminiscent of the overblown mobile frenzy of 2000.

The latest research, from analyst group IDC, estimates Japan will have 69 million 3G subscribers by 2007, accounting for 78 per cent of the entire mobile market of 80 million subscribers.

3G services will also generate the bulk of revenue for the Japanese network operators - some US$54 billion ($91.6 billion) or 81 per cent of the market - by 2007.

By then, data services will contribute 26 per cent to the average monthly mobile phone bill, IDC adds.

With Japan forming the nucleus of Asian 3G growth, the rest of the region's fondness for mobile downloads means Asia is being targeted as the key market for fledgling 3G data services.

IT researcher Pyramid claims Asia leads the world in downloads of software, ringtones and screen wallpapers, services expected to generate US$3.6 billion a year by 2008. They account for revenue of US$1.3 billion a year now.

Meanwhile, the world's largest mobile phone maker, Nokia, is focusing on Asia to bolster relations with application developers.

Nokia, which expects to sell between 50 million and 100 million 2.5G handsets this year, has launched new training courses for application developers based in Asia, starting last week in Singapore. Central to the training programmes are XHTML and Java.

Nokia's New Zealand product marketing manager, Grant Norwood, said such programmes are usually open to New Zealand developers, but those developers are generally under-represented in Nokia's Asia Pacific training schemes.

"Mobile development is a little bit light in this neck of the woods," he said. "It's starting to change. Mobile phones have a high penetration rate here, but people are primarily using them for voice."

Looking at mobile operating systems in an increasingly 3G world, IDC expects Symbian to take its share of the market from 46 per cent today to 53 per cent by 2006, Microsoft's smartphone software eventually giving it 27 per cent of the market and Palm holding 10 per cent.

Linux will remain a niche platform for mobile users and account for just over 4 per cent of mobile phone software.

While KDDI is shifting its customers to CDMA1x and plans to have CDMA1x-EV-DO services later this year, J-Phone is taking the W-CDMA path.

Nokia says the second half of next year will see 3G finally generating mass appeal - and sales.

How to enter

Mobile application developers are invited to enter the Frontier transtasman competition being run by the Herald in conjunction with Ericsson.

The competition seeks to find the best mobile applications from New Zealand and Australia.

There are prizes for winners - and the chance to pitch applications to potential investors.

See Ericsson's website for details.