Andrew Gawith: Get ready for the next technology revolution

Students were mobilised to help the quake clean-up via text messaging. Photo / Greg Bowker

Near field communication is where it's happening, writes Andrew Gawith, director of Gareth Morgan Investments, an investment manager, KiwiSaver and superannuation provider.

The rapid development of mobile technology is opening up an ever wider range of possibilities and threats for governments, businesses and citizens.

Mobile technology is delivering instant networking for literally any purpose: organising a party, co-ordinating student volunteers to help Christchurch clean up after the earthquake, a special offer at your favourite clothes shop, and even political revolutions.

The revolutions that have swept aside at least two governments in northern Africa so far this year and put others under severe scrutiny have been nurtured by the web and the power and efficiency of mobile communications. China is increasingly worried by its citizens being able to get uncensored news from the web and to co-ordinate protests via subtle text messaging, etc.

A couple of weeks ago the authorities drafted into central Beijing almost 750,000 police, security guards and ordinary citizens to ensure order was kept for the latest annual session of Parliament - the Government is determined to quash any possibility of a "Jasmine Revolution".

For businesses the web has ushered in a whole new way of interacting with customers. It's a far more dynamic process with websites changing continuously and messaging that instantly informs customers of special deals, and better still, with the latest mobile technology lets them know about specials as they pass their favourite shops.

The increasing sophistication of the web and the devices it is available on is fuelling a trend that has been going for a decade or more and has seen major changes in traditional businesses such as travel agents, newspapers and real estate.

It's been eating into the world of book retailing for some time and while it would be heroic to argue it was the cause of Whitcoulls' and Borders' demise, it would be foolish to ignore what e-books, and the new devices they are available on, will do to traditional bookshops.

The new smart phones and tablets threaten to displace the conventional computer just as the desktop replaced the mainframe and the laptop the desktop. Why lug a laptop around when the computing power of a smart phone is sufficient to do most of what people want, and much more conveniently?

The increasing power of mobile technology is ushering in another wave of change for businesses, many of whom are still coming to grips with the impact of the web on how they conduct their business. One of the key changes will be the marked increase in the speed with which things can, and are expected to, happen - the students helping Christchurch people tidy up after the earthquake were quickly into action and by all accounts were very efficiently directed via text messaging.

Although many traditional businesses have suffered as the web has woven its magic, there are examples of companies in some of the most vulnerable industries adapting quickly. Some travel agents, for example, have developed websites designed to make it easy to compare costs and services for almost every aspect of your holiday.

It's not clear that the way we measure GDP (economic output) is able to cope with this rapidly changing e-world. As brick-and-mortar businesses give way to low-cost or free online alternatives, we tend to notice the losses of stores and jobs.

But GDP is less able to measure the offsetting gains from the convenience of being able to book our ticket to Sydney for the weekend, plus accommodation and a show in 15 minutes on a Thursday evening? And can we capture the value to house hunters of being able to sit at their computer and search for a house to suit their needs and their budget and then flick to Google Earth for a quick look at the neighbourhood, and perhaps to the MetService to check the climate? Unlikely.

The most popular economics book so far this year - Tyler Cowen's The Great Stagnation - suggests that the economic benefits, especially in developed countries, from new technology have plateaued. That could be so, but it may also reflect shortcomings in the way we measure many of the benefits to consumers of new technologies. Interestingly his book is only available online, for US$4.

What is clear is that as the web becomes more accessible its impact will become more potent. Information will circulate faster and be more readily available - that will allow shoppers to further optimise their spending.

Even now shoppers with smart phones can photograph bar codes on the goods they are interested in and the same application uses the web to show where else that product is available on line, and in stores nearby, and at what price. Your personal e-shopper has arrived!

The next step in the fast evolving smart phone area is near field communications which allows the phone to become your credit card, train ticket, and access to your car, house and office. But why stop at smart phones? Why not a chip or two embedded around your body and a pair of smart glasses to manage all your web, phone, payment, medical needs? It's a matter of when, rather than if, smart phones become obsolete.