The Warehouse Group upgrades FY19 profit forecast

The Warehouse expects to post profit between $73-$75 million. Photo / Supplied

The Warehouse Group has again revised its earnings forecast for the FY19 year.

In a trading update, NZX-listed The Warehouse said its net profit after tax for the 12 months ending July 28 had been further revised between the range of $73-$75 million.

In an earlier revised earnings forecast issued at the end of last month the group said its full-year earnings would be between $67-$70m. That forecast included accrual for the year's incentive payments, however, the company said this morning that incentive payments had not been "fully triggered" meaning staff would not be paid as much in bonuses as was initially set aside.

The Warehouse said its previous guidance "stated that the forecast included a full accrual for the year's incentive payments".

"As expected, these have not been fully triggered and, as a consequence, we are further revising guidance for adjusted net profit after tax upwards."

"We have released some of the accrual that was put place for our incentive schemes. This does not mean that there will not be incentive payments," a spokeswoman for the group said.

This is the third time the group has revised its FY19 earnings forecast. In March, the company said its full-year earnings would be between $63-$66m.

The upgraded earnings forecast issued last month reflected continued improvement in trading performance and material reduction in debt, the retailer said at the time.

The Warehouse will post its full-year results on September 25.

A Forsyth Barr report released last month said The Warehouse, which operates The Warehouse, Warehouse Stationery, Noel Leeming and Torpedo7, was showing "early encouraging signs" following underwhelming results in recent years.

"We retain a cautious stance with material risk at this stage of the transformation around execution, 'cost-in', and time to see results; but there are some early encouraging signs," Forsyth Barr analyst Guy Hooper said in a note.

"Despite difficult trading conditions in 4Q19 with warmer weather across New Zealand likely impacting sales of seasonal product, WHS still improved underlying trading performance. This is encouraging and is indicative of early execution on its business transformation strategy."

The Warehouse's click and collect tower outside its Sylvia Park store. Photo / Supplied

ShareClarity managing director Daniel Kieser said the group's forecasted result issued last month was encouraging as New Zealand's retail environment remained tough on the back of weak consumer confidence and cost headwinds.

"We've seen a number of companies downgrade their earnings like Michael Hill, Smiths City, Adairs, NoniB and the Reject Shop, so this was a positive result and better than what we were expecting," Kieser told the Herald.

He noted that the expected profit increase was largely the result of the group's lower debt and therefore lower interest expenses.

"It's still too early to say if the transformation is on track, but some of their new initiatives look good, like TheMarket retail platform. It has a good user experience and sits within a retail sweet spot."