New Zealand retail sales in the first quarter rose at half the pace of the fourth quarter as consumers held tighter to their wallets amid a slowdown in the housing market and as higher interest rates started to bite.
The volume of retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in the first three months of 2014, according to Statistics New Zealand, less than the 0.8 percent expected by economists in a Reuters survey and half the previous quarter's 1.4 percent growth rate.
Retail sales growth is slowing after the Reserve Bank began a cycle of interest rate hikes in March and as the housing market slows in response to restrictions on bank lending to low equity borrowers. The Reserve Bank has more interest rate hikes in the pipeline after raising the benchmark in each of the past two months and expects the hikes will have a quicker impact because many borrowers are on floating rates or have fixed rates coming due soon.
"Consumer spending has lost some momentum compared to last year, perhaps in part a response to a slowing housing market," Felix Delbruck, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New Zealand, said in a note. "Consumer spending will increasingly become a moderating force for economic growth as interest rates rise and the housing market slows. This may be happening just a bit sooner than we expected."
Delbruck said the weaker retail data suggests "some mild downside risk" to Westpac's first quarter gross domestic product forecast of 1.1 percent. First quarter GDP is scheduled for release on June 19.
