KEY POINTS:
Yesterday was supposed to be one of those days financial journalists live for. The battle for The Warehouse begins - Foodstuffs and Woolworths go head to head in a 12 round tussle for control of New Zealand's biggest retailer. Corporate auction as blood sport.
But no, we've been
left reading the tea leaves yet again. The Commerce Commission has delayed its decision on the eligibility of the prospective bidders for a third time.
But at least there are a lot of leaves in the cup.
Market-watchers are picking that the delay is because one of the contenders has been knocked back.
Or, more accurately, was about to be knocked back but managed to come up with some sort of new information for the commission to consider. Hence the delay.
Anything less than a head-to-head bidding war will be bad for shareholders, who have been rubbing their hands together at the prospective of a price above $8 a share.
So it was no surprise that The Warehouse shares dropped 18c yesterday, closing at $6.92
And if you had to put money on it, Foodstuffs - which owns the Pak 'n Save chain - has always looked the more likely of the two bidders to be rejected. It has a slightly bigger share of the retail grocery trade and is much bigger at a wholesale level.
That could be an overly negative assumption. The commission may just be being cautious.
But even if Foodstuffs is out, all may not be lost for investors. There's still plenty of talk that other parties are eyeing The Warehouse.
Rumours on both sides of the Tasman this week suggest British grocery giant Tesco is making a move on Australasia, and has employed investment bank Merrill Lynch to look at a potential Warehouse bid.
Tesco has also been linked to a Woolworths bid for Australian retailer Coles this week.
And Pacific Equity Partners (PEP), the high profile private equity group, is still watching closely from the sidelines.
PEP has a 13 per cent stake in Coles as part of the Wesfarmers bidding consortium. It also backed Stephen Tindall's original $5.75 bid.
What we do know is that this delay now seems unusually long.
Foodstuffs applied for commission approval in December; Woolworths applied in mid-January.
Since then, we've watched some of the biggest takeover battles in Australasia unfold across the Tasman.
We live in interesting times for corporate activity. But watching from this side of the Tasman is a bit like tuning into the cricket World Cup final this weekend.
It'll be good cricket but without our team it's not the same. Roll on May 25 - the new deadline.
* Liam Dann is deputy editor of the Business Herald
