Economists split on rise in card spend

Photo / Dean Purcell

A rebound in electronic card transactions last month implies stronger consumer spending but economists are split on whether that is despite, or because of, the February 22 quake.

Retail spending paid for by credit, debt or charge cards in March rose 1.3 per cent on February.

That included a 2.1 per cent rise in spending on transport fuels.

"Given petrol prices are estimated to have increased by just over 6 per cent in the month this suggests the volume of fuel sales is falling," ASB economist Christina Leung said.

"The continued rise in petrol prices is likely encouraging consumers to change their behaviour, such as taking public transport instead."

Excluding the automotive sector, card transactions were up 0.9 per cent by value on February, more than reversing that month's 0.6 per cent fall.

The increased spending was concentrated in durable goods (up 2.5 per cent) and apparel (up 2.3 per cent). Spending on consumables, services and hospitality were all lower.

"That could reflect a short-term boost to spending from Christchurch residents forced to replace damaged or inaccessible goods," said Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs.

Leung said a similar story had been seen across the Tasman, with rises in retail sales focused on household goods and clothing after the Queensland floods. "Outside of these areas, spending remains subdued suggesting households remain cautious in regards to discretionary spending," she said.

But Bank of New Zealand economist Craig Ebert said a 1.3 per cent rise in retail spending would have been solid enough in normal circumstances but was especially robust as March was the first full month of transactions after the February 22 earthquake.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the 1.4 per cent rise in non-automotive card transactions over the March quarter as a whole, compared with the December quarter, suggested momentum in retailing was rising.

Goldman Sachs economist Philip Borkin said once the impact of price increases was removed the underlying trend still appeared soft.