KEY POINTS:
Bargain hunters prepared to brave the hordes of last-minute Christmas shoppers could score some fantastic deals next week, as shops look to move stock in anticipation of an even tougher year ahead.
Panicky retailers already hammered by the year-long slump in sales are tipped to launch discounts of
Boxing Day proportions in the three days leading up to Christmas.
Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, said the deep discounting which began as early as November was just a sign of things to come.
"Some of the retailers are definitely trying to move product now because they can see that it's going to be easier to sell something before Christmas than it's ever going to be able to sell in January or February.
"With financing drying up, if you hit a rough patch, the banks aren't going to be there to bail you out. And so I think there's a few around right now that are living at the discretion of the banks. I think we're going to see a few people drop their pants early in terms of sales, looking at the number of signs around.
"People who are leaving their shopping to the last minute may actually be the ones that get the best deals."
Retailers Association chief executive John Albertson said the extent of a big bargain blitz would depend on how this weekend's trading went.
"It's a real arm wrestle in terms of maximising your share of the customer's dollar. If they have a reasonable Friday, Saturday, Sunday, then they may hold off."
Simon Tong, chief executive of Paymark, which processes more than three-quarters of all in-store electronic transactions, said the slow start to the Christmas retail period suggested a surge could occur next week.
"The last time Christmas Day fell on a Thursday was in 2003 and during that period we saw a sharp spike in spending on the three weekdays prior to Christmas ... we may see this year follow the same trend as 2003 with a last-minute retail rush."
Retailers were keeping their final pre-Christmas promotions a surprise.
New Zealand retail doyen Rod Duke, whose Briscoe Group runs the Rebel Sport, Living & Giving and Briscoes Homeware stores, expects the three days before Christmas to "just go stupid". He expects the discounting and deals to at least remain as aggressive as they have been. Asked if he was planning something special for the final three days, he said: "We've got a couple of big things still to come through, but I just don't want to telegraph anything just yet, thank you."
The Warehouse Group general manager of marketing Stuart Yorston was similarly circumspect. "Everyone is doing all they can to try and bring the sales forward, and everyone's doing the same thing basically, so it's been very competitive out there. Some retailers may do it, but I can't comment. I'm expecting the stores to be really busy despite any activity."
Andrew Dutkiewicz, chief executive of Noel Leeming Group which runs the Noel Leeming and Bond & Bond stores, was resisting the pressure. "Our view is that pre-Christmas is about gifts. And we're selling through our gift lines nicely so we are under no pressure to clear any stock.
"We think that the public know that Boxing Day is the time to go out for the sales. If people do break early ... my sense is the public is going to say, 'Well, if people are doing this now, let's wait and see what Boxing Day is like."'