Is the New Zealand equity market a bubble? With global short-term interest rates at close to zero and a number of central banks pumping liquidity into markets as fast as their printing presses allow, there are clear signs that asset bubbles have formed across the spectrum.
While globally bonds appear to offer poor value, unless deflation occurs, closer to home assets such as the New Zealand dollar, houses and parts of our equity market appear to be significantly overvalued.
The New Zealand equity market has performed strongly over the past few years supported by a reasonably stable domestic economy, low interest rates and KiwiSaver flows. Investors have also been attracted by the high dividend yields on offer, particularly because there are few attractive fixed income alternatives and high-yielding finance companies have all but disappeared.
In the past 12 months alone the market is up almost 30 per cent while underlying earnings growth has been about 3 per cent, signifying that much of the return has come from multiple expansion (ie, the market getting more expensive).
Looking at the market against its international peers, we can see that New Zealand companies are trading at a premium to their historical valuations and also relative to other world markets.