New Zealand dollar holds steady as interest rate decision looms

Speculation is growing that the central bank could signal the first rate hike may now come in 2020. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The New Zealand dollar was largely unchanged, capped by expectations the central bank may be more dovish on Thursday and by a strong rebound in the US dollar after solid jobs data overnight Friday.

The Kiwi dollar traded at US73.99c as at 5pm today from US73.98c as at 8am and little changed from Friday in New York. The trade-weighted index was at 77.93 from 78.04.

"We have basically maintained the losses we got hit with on Friday night as a result of the strong payrolls data," said Westpac Bank Senior FX Strategist Imre Speizer.

Speizer said the central bank's survey of inflation expectations just added to the view that the central bank will keep rates on hold at 1.75 per cent on Thursday and could even indicate it was planning to keep rates on hold for even longer than it previously forecast.

The Reserve Bank's survey of expectations showed respondents see annual inflation at 1.77 per cent in one year, down from 1.92 per cent rate in the prior survey three months ago. In two years it is seen at 2.09 per cent, down from 2.17 per cent.

The survey confirmed "come Thursday they will sit on their hands, keep repeating they are going to do so for a long time. There is a case for them to be slightly more dovish this time around", Speizer said.

In its May monetary policy statement, the central bank's forecasts indicated that rates would remain on hold until September 2019.

Since then inflation and growth have been lower than the RBNZ expected. As a result, speculation is growing that the central bank could signal the first rate hike may now come in 2020.

"That's what is keeping a lid on the kiwi, as well as the US dollar rebound," he said.

The US dollar index rallied after Labor Department figures showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 209,000 jobs in July, beating estimates of a 180,000 gain, while average hourly earnings rose a modest 0.3 per cent. US inflation data is released at the end of the week.

The kiwi was trading at A93.20c from A93.50c in New York on Friday. It shed some ground after Australian job advertisements rose for a fifth straight month but trading was thin due to a bank holiday in New South Wales.

The kiwi was at 56.65p from 56.81p and was at 4.9740 yuan from 4.9828 yuan. It dipped to 62.72 euro cents from 62.90 euro cents and traded at 81.90 yen from 81.98 yen.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate was unchanged at 2.17 per cent while the 10-year swaps rose 2 basis point to 3.21 per cent.