KEY POINTS:
Broadcasters claim that a 5 per cent increase in television watching to October 31 signals the industry is strong as it heads into the new programming season and an economic downturn.
The result counters a view that free-to-air television - like other traditional media - has a limited future with the large number of new media reducing audiences and advertising revenue.
But Television New Zealand says it will not be taking any "risky programming" decisions on TV2 to ensure it does not lose revenue in the tightening advertising market.
Television Broadcasters Council chief executive Rick Friesen said the downturn would lead to more people staying at home and watching free-to-air television.
Grey Advertising media analyst Michael Carney said speculation about a demise for free-to-air TV was overblown but the idea of a boom might be overly optimistic. And he acknowledged that any growth in the stay-at-home factor would be balanced by advertisers limiting their spending.
The 5 per cent increase in viewership - the number of viewers and the amount of time they spend watching - for the 10 months to October 31 compared to the same period in 2007 was consistent across free-to-air and pay television and applied when the Beijing Olympics was excluded.
Friesen said pay television through Sky - whose growth has been accelerating - was likely to slow next year as consumers questioned spending $70 and upwards in subscription fees.
The free-to-air broadcasters - TVNZ, MediaWorks and Sky-owned Prime Television - have recently lined up their programming schedules.
Media buying veteran Martin Gillman of Total Media predicted that with less demand there would be less early buying of television advertising - moving to what is called a short market.
That would lead to better deals for advertisers.
The tightening market has led to broadcasters - or Television New Zealand at least - programming to provide stability for advertisers.
That means a more conservative approach aiming at surefire hits on Television One and TV2.
TVNZ director of programming Jane Wilson said its choice of shows was based on its "Superbrands strategy".
"We have gone with nothing that is marginal or risky," she said.
"They are all big, high-rating, successful shows - there is nothing that is marginal."
Shows such as Coronation Street remain a part of the lineup, but TVNZ has limited the risk of new and untested shows. The Sopranos and Six Feet Under would have been in this category but there were no programmes like that available on the market, Wilson said. TVNZ unveiled the "no risk" strategy last week.
