KEY POINTS:
We predict a TVNZ makeover, a growing online challenge for TV, radio and print, and Vodafone going video ga-ga
Anti-advertising:
Advertising and marketing are blamed for many woes and the Nanny State is happy to reward Labour Party health activists with new regulations on marketing food, drugs and liquor next year. So the marketing sector faces a crackdown this year.
Billboards ban:
It is not just central government with an eye on advertising. Auckland City councillors are promising to ban billboards in the CBD saying they are a blot on the streetscape. Next step? Maybe kicking business out of the Central Business District.
Creative Catmur:
Paul Catmur has left ad agency DDB, where he was Asia and New Zealand executive creative director, for Y&R. Insiders say Catmur's replacement, Toby Talbot, will be a better fit.
Duff decision:
The former head of marketing and programming at TVNZ, Annemarie Duff, is charming and amiable - not unlike the former CEO, Ian Fraser, who appointed her. And, like Fraser, she too cannot be blamed solely for the decline of the country's premier free-to-air channel. She leaves TVNZ at the end of this month but will return - as a consultant to the news department.
Ellis in Wonderland:
TVNZ chief executive Rick Ellis brings strong leadership back to state TV, with swift progress on digital initiatives Freeview and TVNZ ondemand. But what about the core business of TV One and TV2? The word around TVNZ is that Ellis is stunned by the scale of the challenges he faces this year.
Ferrit fashion:
Telecom is investing millions of dollars in its internet mall ferrit.co.nz. But some are questioning whether the business plan makes sense and relies on retailers not bothering to develop their own online presence. Insiders say that Ferrit is headed for a hole, but nobody at Telecom is saying.
Going, going ...
TVNZ commissioning editor Tony Holden is one of the most powerful people deciding what programmes get made. What would happen if he resigned? Surely TVNZ would use his talents elsewhere. No surprise if he ends up with a senior role on Dancing With The Stars, one of Holden's many successes at TVNZ.
Holmes alone:
After Nicky Hager publicised his confidential media training sessions for Don Brash in the last election, will Paul Holmes ever get a New Year honour out of Helen Clark? Or might he have to wait until National is in power?
Indie negatives:
Fairfax did the right thing in straightening the circulation figures for the Independent Financial Review. Under Fairfax, the paper is looking a lot better. But is a base of 3300 sales enough for a stand-alone business newspaper?
John Campbell:
Flamboyant, living for the love of the common people - is John Campbell the 21st century Paul Holmes?
Kiwi's Breeze:
CanWest complained about TVNZ getting special funding deals for digital TV, but enjoyed its own deal for state funding of Kiwi FM. How long will CanWest run Kiwi broadcasting on a powerful FM frequency in Auckland, while The Breeze broadcasts on a weaker signal?
Leonard's legacy:
CanWest Global chief executive Leonard Asper passed through New Zealand for the company's annual meeting barely able to contain his boredom. With TV3 Ireland sold and CanWest South Pacific interests up for sale he might not have to tour the colonies again. Through CanWest, the Asper family controls half of the New Zealand television and radio industry.
Mental health:
Ad agency FCB and its Mental Health Awareness clients have won kudos for their campaign featuring former All Black John Kirwan and his problems with depression. But the relentless repetition and dark subject matter is making us feel a little ... well ... depressed.
News of the news:
TVNZ is planning a makeover of the TVNZ newsroom that would see Bill Ralston restructured out of his role. Are the problems at One News Ralston's fault alone, or does some of the blame lie with successive marketing executives who have promoted it to death?
Old media:
The problem for newspapers, television and radio is keeping up the resources for their traditional products while spending money on new digital media that have yet to attract a sizeable commercial following.
Private plays:
The march of the private equity players continues with deals concluded for ACP, Seven Network and in ongoing negotiations for APN, publishers of the Herald.
In retail, Pacific Equity Partners has played a key role in Stephen Tindall's attempts to privatise the Red Sheds. It is also linked to Foodstuffs' likely bid for the company.
Questions:
Will 2007 be the year that Barry Colman sells the National Business Review?
Roy & Roger:
Will this be the year when the fathers of New Zealand advertising step down? Last year Roy Meares sold his agency Meares Taine to Ogilvy and makes no secret he plansto ease his way out of overseeing creative content at Ogilvy. Roger MacDonnell has also set up a new line of succession as he prepares to exit Colenso BBDO, the first indigenous New Zealand ad agency.
Sky's the limit:
Sky is a more aggressive player in the media market now that it is losing its monopoly on digital TV.
Sky bidding forced TVNZ to pay millions of dollars extra for the rights to Disney programmes last year.
CanWest faces a similar boost in what it pays for Fox programming when those rights come under negotiation, probably next year.
Tindall's box:
Will Warehouse Group controlling shareholder Stephen Tindall join a consortium with Foodstuffs and Pacific Equity Partners to buy out the Warehouse Group? There's a theory Tindall is such a nationalist he would go all out to avoid selling to Australia's Woolworths. But there will be questions about the independent role of the Tindall Foundation, and its ability to reject any lucrative offer from Woolies.
United they stand?
CanWest used to be linked to Sky in the old days but since Sky extended its pay monopoly into free-to-air with the purchase of Prime, CanWest is working more closely with TVNZ. It's a case of "my enemy's enemy is my friend".
Vodafone video:
Vodafone made a smart choice when it appointed former TVNZ assistant chief executive Stephen Smith to head its expanding operation delivering video content over phones.
But like a lot of telecom companies around the world, it is still working out how to make the new content pay.
What's next?
Martin Devlin's role at CanWest's Radio Live has been the subject of speculation, with rumours he was considering a move.
Xtra media:
Telecom may have held onto control of the business side of things but under its deal with MSN it has struggled to understand how to operate as a media company. Being revamped as Yahoo7! Xtra could change all that.
YouTube:
Like a lot of online ventures, it makes questionable commercial sense right now, but give it a couple of years.
Zapped:
TVNZ has written off $11 million a year from regional ads on TV One and TV2 broadcast by satellite. Sky had provided the satellite links that allowed the deal but TVNZ pulled out after Sky demanded concessions including ending its ban on Sky ads for its two channels.
