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The American Government wrapped up its case against Conrad Black as the fallen media baron's fraud trial entered its final phase and all the indications are that it has not built a cast-iron case that would force him to testify in his own defence.
Black's lawyers have indicated they will call only a few witnesses and take barely a week before resting, suggesting they do not plan to risk putting the famously pompous peer on the witness stand in what would have been a last desperate throw of the dice to avoid prison.
Instead, the former proprietor of the Daily Telegraph has been defending himself outside the court, in a round of media interviews to publicise his new biography of Richard Nixon.
He has insisted the prosecution case against him is a tissue of lies. The judge, Amy St Eve, was so incensed at Black's public statements that she told the defence team to "restrain" him or she would do it for them.
The prosecution called their final witnesses yesterday after 2 1/2 months of testimony aimed at painting Black as a fraudster who treated his United States-listed newspaper company, Hollinger International, as a personal piggy bank, to the detriment of outside shareholders.
As well as living the high life on company expenses, Black was accused of cooking up a string of bogus "non-compete" agreements that allowed him and his associates to pocket US$60 million in illegal payments.
Hollinger's independent board members - including the former governor of Illinois, Jim Thompson, and the Canadian economist Marie-Josee Kravis - testified they did not know such large sums were being diverted to Black and the three other defendants: Jack Boultbee, Mark Kipnis and Peter Atkinson.
David Radler, Black's right-hand man for more than three decades, testified they had dreamt up the idea of using non-compete payments as a way of sheltering bonuses from tax and to pay off debts at their other companies. Testifying as part of a plea deal, Radler was attacked as a liar out to save his own skin. While Radler insisted he had initially denied wrongdoing to protect Black, Edward Greenspan, the media baron's lawyer, forced him to admit he had double-crossed Black in other business dealings.
Steven Skurka, a veteran defence lawyer who has been observing the trial for Canadian television, said Black would be acquitted, citing the defence team's cross-examination of the main witnesses, in particular their success in getting Thompson to admit that he had only "skimmed" important documents.
"Conrad Black is the uncontrollable waterfall. My view has always been that the prosecution's job in order to win the case is to do enough to force him to testify. I don't think they have done enough and, as a result, I think they will lose the case," he said.
Others believe the prosecution's vivid evidence of Black's lavish personal spending on Hollinger expenses will prove more persuasive to the blue-collar, mainly female jury than the non-compete deal paperwork. Eddie Genson, Black's Chicago-based attorney, has repeatedly asked the judge to declare a mistrial because of what he says is the prosecution's pandering to "class prejudice".
Lord Black faces 14 counts of fraud, racketeering and obstruction of justice.
- Independent