New Zealand started the June quarter in alert level 4 lockdown, with strict restrictions on the activities of both households and businesses.
While the economy unsurprisingly suffered over the period, economists said it is likely to have rebounded in the current September quarter, as activity bounced back like a coiled spring when restrictions lifted.
"Never have we recorded such declines," Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said.
"And never have we bounced back so quickly, either."
Capital Economics is pencilling in an 11 per cent rebound in GDP over the September quarter.
While both the June and September quarters will generate a lot of statistical noise, the big questions lie in what will happen over the long haul as the economy adjusts to a new, Covid-19 reality.
On that score economists say more will need to be done on the fiscal and monetary front.
ASB expects annual GDP growth to be down "only" 5 per cent by the fourth quarter.
The bank said risks were now skewed to an even stronger second-half recovery.
"Nonetheless, with unemployment rising and the borders to remain closed, we continue to believe the Reserve Bank's 2021 GDP growth forecasts are on the optimistic side and expect the official cash rate to be cut to negative territory in April," ASB said.
The Reserve Bank said in its latest monetary policy statement that annual GDP was assumed to drop by 5.8 per cent in 2020, a smaller decline than in its May Statement.
ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said policymakers will rightly downplay the importance of today's GDP release.
"The path to true recovery is lengthy, and further stimulus will be required," Workman said.
"We're now in the final month of the September quarter, and that's going to bring a very sharp - albeit partial - rebound, freeing the economy of that recessionary label, but definitely not marking anything near a 'recovery' from this crisis.
"However, given the scale of the lockdown-induced decline and the persistent impacts of this crisis, we expect the cumulative loss in activity will be around three to four times larger," Workman said.
While the current quarter would bring a sharp recovery, Workman said big challenges lay ahead as the economy was yet to feel the full impact of the closed border and the sharp contraction in global growth.
"Not to mention the fact that the economy is yet to be weaned off an unprecedented amount of temporary support, such as the wage subsidy and mortgage relief," Workman said. "Fiscal and monetary policy still has its work cut out."
As expected, primary industries were the most resilient in the quarter, down 8.7 per cent quarter on quarter.
Accommodation and food services were hardest hit, falling a whopping 47.4 per cent.
A number of industries recorded similar declines, including mining, clothing and footwear, furniture manufacturing, and transport and postal warehousing.
Stats NZ said measures to contain Covid-19 have led to historically large falls in GDP in many parts of the world, with countries' results reflecting the nature and timing of their responses, and the structure of their economies.
New Zealand's result compares to falls of 7.0 per cent in Australia, 11.5 per cent in Canada, 7.9 per cent in Japan, 20.4 per cent in the United Kingdom, and 9.1 per cent in the United States.
Kiwibank's Kerr said the focus must now turn to the recovery, adding the current quarter "looks pretty good".
"It's the path we take over the next three years that needs attention."
On that score, ANZ expects the Reserve Bank to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to minus 0.25 per cent next April.
"The odds are skewed to more rather than less," ANZ said.
"A negative OCR looks a done deal."
