New Zealand's economy probably grew at a slower pace in the first three months of the year, after expanding at the fastest clip in three years in the fourth quarter of 2012, led by construction and manufacturing.
Gross domestic product rose 0.6 per cent in the first quarter for an annual rate of 2.5 per cent, according to a Reuters survey of 10 economists. The figures are due at 10:45am on Thursday. The economy grew 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter last year.
Economic data points to a continued pickup in construction activity driven by the rebuild of Christchurch and also more building work in the increasingly overheated Auckland property market. At the same time, drought spurred farmers to send more livestock to be processed, stoking manufacturing, while the impact of reduced production may not show up until the second quarter.
Growth in the first quarter "would largely reflect the effects of the drought and Canterbury earthquake rebuilding," said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB. "Increasingly dry weather over late February and March led farmers to bring forward livestock slaughter and reduce milk production, but for the net impact to boost output in Q1."
The Producers Price Index release for the first quarter noted higher sheep slaughter numbers because of the drought and surplus dairy and beef cattle may also have made their way into the production chain in the face of prolonged dry weather.