My gut says a dip into recession is the most likely result of the battle to beat inflation, says Liam Dann. Photo / 123RF
My gut says a dip into recession is the most likely result of the battle to beat inflation, says Liam Dann. Photo / 123RF
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
These sessions are fast-paced and require immediate responses to some pretty big questions about the economy. So there is a tendency to lean into your gut feel on things.
"My gut feel is that we're going to see a recession or go close to one in the next year," I told Herald reader Danny C.
"Central banks have the bit between their teeth now and are chasing down inflation. Rates are rising very fast from a historical perspective, even though they are coming off a low base."
Danny C wanted to know if now was a good time to sell a house. For the record, I stuck to the Financial Markets Authority-approved advice on that one.
Nothing I say should be taken as personal financial advice. You should be guided by your own financial circumstances as much as macro-economic circumstances.
But broadly it looks like we're going to see a downturn in the year ahead.
House prices are already off by 4.1 per cent and economists are forecasting they'll keep falling - by as much as 10 per cent.
The local stock market - which can be a pretty good indicator for these things - is off about 12 per cent.
Financial industry experts like to point to bond markets. Specifically, if the yield curve for US treasury bonds "inverts" that is considered one of the best predictors of recession there is.
Normally, if yields are plotted across time on a graph they should curve up the right, indicating a higher investment return for bonds that are held for longer terms.
If you think about the interest on term deposits, for example, banks offer a higher rate of return the longer you are prepared to lock into a fixed term.
An inversion means that shorter-term rates (like those for two-year treasuries) are higher than the longer-term rates.
In other words, bond investors are getting paid more to hold shorter-term US government debt than they do for holding it for a longer-term.
That means the market has turned very gloomy about the longer-term economic outlook.
That has happened in bond markets this year.
Really though there's a simpler indicator of recession risk than that.
When interest rates go up recessions often follow.
And the faster central banks hike rates the more likely a recession is.
In New Zealand we are hiking rates very fast now. In fact, if the OCR goes as high as market expectations - at 3.75 or 4 per cent - it will be one of the fastest cycles of rate hikes in our history.
It's not hard to see how that could shock the economy into recession.
The cost of servicing debt is rising so rapidly that risk-taking businesses and investors (think property developers) may find themselves struggling with cash flow.
The Reserve Bank is clearly intent on chasing down inflation now. There's nothing in its mandate to stop it, as long as unemployment stays below historic definitions of full employment - at around 5 per cent.
New data this week is expected to show another record low at 3 per cent for the first quarter.
That means the RBNZ has more leeway than usual to squeeze the demand side of the economy without causing excessive economic pain.
Inflation busting: Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Supplied
The reality is that for most people, as long as you don't lose your job, a recession isn't such a bad time.
The cost of living eases back. With less demand in the economy, getting things done becomes easier.
That's what the Reserve Bank will be hoping to see.
Obviously everyone, including me, hopes we can get inflation back in its box (between 1 and 3 per cent) without the need for a hard economic landing.
Nobody wants a recession. Stalling economic growth is risky because if business and consumer sentiment get too gloomy we can get stuck there.
There are things that could still go our way to aid a softer landing.
The world could finally get some good news on the big historic events like war and the pandemic. Supply chain issues could unravel faster than expected.
That would be nice and would mean interest rates wouldn't need to rise so far.
Tourism could come back quicker than expected, giving the economy a timely boost.
I'm certainly not so gloomy as to fear we're headed back to the recessionary cycles of the 1970s and 80s.
Even if you think they were slow to move, central banks are acting much more decisively to target inflation than they did back then.
We have that low unemployment base.
The New Zealand Government's finances are in much better shape and we are still seeing strong prices for our exports - neither of which was the case in the 1970s.
Our economy is far more open and responsive to economic signals. It can re-balance fast when it's given a nudge.
But increasingly my gut says a dip into recession is the most likely result of the battle to beat inflation.
