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Home / Business / Companies

Liam Dann: Falling kiwi to attract foreign buyers

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
5 Oct, 2014 04:00 PM5 mins to read

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More recently public focus has been on Chinese investment with high profile purchases of dairy farms and corporate takeovers.

More recently public focus has been on Chinese investment with high profile purchases of dairy farms and corporate takeovers.

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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Get ready for an influx of bargain-hunting foreign investors, because as the dollar drops, New Zealand assets are effectively going on special.

The rapid fall in the kiwi from a July peak of US88c to US79c on Friday has already presented international investors with a 10 per cent discount. Likely further falls, as the US currency recovers, will see local property and businesses getting even more attractive to foreign buyers.

This is exactly what happened in the late 1990s and early 2000s as the dollar sank as low as US38c.

Let's be ready for it this time. Let's make sure our overseas investment rules are optimal and, as investors, let's not undervalue our listed companies.

A lower currency is good news for exporters because it makes their products cheaper on foreign markets and they become more competitive. Also, the money they earn overseas translates to bigger profits and more local buying power when they bring it home. That's important because New Zealand is overwhelmingly an export-led economy.

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The obvious downside is that the cost of imports rise and local consumers effectively become poorer in the global market.

But another effect is that New Zealand becomes a better value investment proposition for foreigners.

From NZX listed companies to Waikato dairy farms and Epsom villas - everything gets cheaper.

An influx of foreign capital is not a bad thing if it enables businesses to expand and creates new jobs.

The bottom line is that without foreign investment this country couldn't afford to create the kind modern technological society we expect. Financially we would struggle to maintain the level of economic stability we enjoy without the backing of the large Australian banks.

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But it is a double-edged sword. It does cost us.

As foreign-owned businesses take profits out of the country to return to shareholders it drains wealth from the country, creating a current account deficit.

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It is important that New Zealand doesn't react in a knee-jerk xenophobic fashion to foreign investment which effectively keeps the economy ticking over.

But we need to be aware of the upsides and the downsides.

We need serious and measured debate about how we maintain a good balance. Now is an important time to be thinking about it precisely because we are about to get cheaper.

More recently public focus has been on Chinese investment, with high profile purchases of dairy farms and corporate takeovers, such as that of F&P Appliances by Haier.

But the stronger US economy, which is shifting the currency balance, also means a likelihood of renewed acquisition activity from the kind of big pension funds and private equity players that snapped up assets - like our forests - prior to the global financial crisis.

Chinese corporate investors often take a longer-term, more strategic view with their investments.

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In contrast, US private equity can be quicker to rationalise and move operations offshore if they don't see immediate returns. They are more likely to be working on a five-year investment cycle.

The most obvious and least xenophobic way to address the balance is to meet it head on.

New Zealand needs its own pool of investment capital, we need to invest in our own companies and ensure the wealth we do have in this country is deployed efficiently.

Before the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, which dampened US and European investor appetite, the NZX saw a steady stream of listed stocks sold off - often at prices that later proved to be bargains. Towards the end of the cycle investors started to get smarter and rejected some big takeover plays such as the attempted buy-out of Auckland Airport.

Post GFC, as KiwiSaver grows and with new market regulation, the country has made great strides towards stronger and more secure capital markets.

But the rise of the US dollar will see renewed interest from North American pension funds and private equity players.

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We need to be alert to offers that undervalue our assets and be sure we take a long-term strategic view.

If we want to leave a legacy of real wealth for the next generation of Kiwis then investors need to think beyond short-term economic cycles.

Meanwhile, the likely acceleration of land and property purchases presents a different challenge.

While Labour's proposed policy to restrict foreign land purchases clearly didn't fly with the public, there may be a case for the Government to take a closer look at the settings of the Overseas Investment Act.

Even without wholesale legislative overhaul - as we've seen with the IRD in the past few years - there is wide scope for change if a new enforcement approach is demanded from a ministerial level.

If we do indeed face another extended period of lower currency value - then that kind of renewed focus from the top may now be needed.

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