Kiwi expected to slip further

Photo / Supplied

The New Zealand dollar slipped across a range of currencies, as investors again lost their appetite for risk.

As local trading closed yesterday, the kiwi had fallen to US70.67c from US70.94c at 8am, continuing its retreat after briefly touching a two-month high of US73c early on Friday.

Westpac Institutional Bank said in its weekly forex outlook yesterday that the New Zealand dollar was expected to suffer from deteriorating global risk sentiment, partly because of disappointing data from the United States, and the absence of any important local data.

Over the past week and month, commodity currencies had underperformed, while the safe-haven yen and European currencies had outperformed.

"This reflects a swing towards risk aversion in currency markets. Last week's NZD/USD high should mark a medium term peak," the bank said.

It expected a fall to at least US68c this week, with potential for a larger fall over the next month to US65c.

BNZ currency strategist Mike Jones said investor sentiment had declined despite a week of generally positive US earnings reports.

Factors undermining sentiment included a slightly lower growth rate in China, another batch of weak data from the US, and cautious minutes from the US Federal Reserve.

Jones said the dollar had also been undermined by position adjustments after heavy buying last week.

"With equities faltering sharply on Friday, many of these positions unwound with little in the way of fresh buying interest evident despite the relatively large intraday move."

The factors suggested investors were put off by the events of last week, and appetite for risk currencies had diminished again.

Helped by rising European money market rates, the euro reached a two-month high against the greenback, topping US$1.30, although it later eased.

The US currency also fell to a seven-month low against the yen.

The NZ dollar was down to €0.5478 and 61.27 at 5pm yesterday from €0.5498 and 61.34 at 8am and €0.5578 and 62.70 at 5pm on Friday.

Against the Australian dollar, the kiwi fell to A81.54c from A81.90c at 8am and A82.15c at 5pm on Friday.

The trade weighted index fell to 66.69 at 5pm from 67.72 the same time on Friday.

- NZPA