NZ stocks: Quiet space reserved for war

By ELLEN READ

The lack of local data and releases scheduled this week is probably just as well, as developing international events seem likely to dominate the markets.

The company reporting season is out of the way and Statistics New Zealand is having a quiet week, so the markets will be free from local issues as they concentrate on the United States/Iraq conflict.

The New Zealand dollar weakened last week as war-jittery US investors took money home.

Where the kiwi will go this week is hard to pick, as it will largely depend on war-front developments.

If there is a war, it will come at a time when the world's economy is very fragile, said First NZ Capital economist Jason Wong in his weekly commentary.

"US consumer spending is looking vulnerable, having been propped up through the last year by tax cuts, lower interest rates and a huge amount of mortgage refinancing," he said.

"As the effects of these stimuli moderate, other parts of the economy, including business investment or exports, are not strong enough to take up the slack.

"Meanwhile, Europe remains very sluggish, with Germany possibly back in recession.

"Japan faces another possible economic crisis and its economy is either heading for recession or already in it."

A further rise in oil prices or another fall in confidence could easily tip the global economy back into recession, he said.

Behind the scenes, the Stock Exchange continues the consultation process over its planned new AX market for growth companies and businesses with alternative structures, such as agricultural co-operatives.

The exchange and the Securities Commission will also give more information on the memorandum of understanding they have signed to facilitate their co-regulation of listed companies.