Transport sector to blame for rise in emissions of carbon dioxide

By BRIAN FALLOW

New Zealand's emissions of carbon dioxide, the main "greenhouse" gas blamed for global warming, grew by an above-average 2.7 per cent last year.

The average increase since 1990 has been 2.4 per cent a year, or 33 per cent overall.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, which has yet to come into force, New Zealand has undertaken to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels on average between 2008 and 2012, or pay for the difference.

While carbon dioxide (COinf2) is the most important greenhouse gas worldwide, in New Zealand's case methane emissions from the agricultural sector account for more than half of all greenhouse gas emissions, adjusted for equivalent global warming effect. Those emissions are, however, exempt from the proposed carbon tax, due to come into effect in 2007.

Data released by the Ministry of Economic Development this week showed COinf2 emissions from the transport sector grew 10 per cent last year, reflecting higher petrol and diesel consumption. The average increase since 1990 was 3.9 per cent.

By contrast, emissions from thermal power stations were 15 per cent lower than the year before, but that was because 2001 had a cold dry winter with above average reliance on thermal generation.

Climate Change Minister Pete Hodgson said New Zealand had to break the link between economic growth and escalating use of fossil fuels.

"That is why we have the national energy efficiency and conservation strategy, energy policy initiatives to encourage renewables, climate change policies to provide incentives for emission reduction and a commitment under the transport strategy to improve the efficiency of road and rail networks, promote alternatives to roads and reduce traffic growth."

But Chris Baker of the Greenhouse Policy Coalition, an industry lobby group, said that while reducing the link between growth and fossil fuel use was a reasonable long-term goal, "in the short to medium term the fact is we have an electricity system at reasonably high risk because of the variability of rainfall".

Maui gas had filled that gap very well but it was running out.

"So what do we put in its place to fill that gap and to meet increasing demand? It will be a combination of renewables and thermal [generation] but, logically, thermal will have a much greater role to play in delivering energy security than renewables."

While highly developed countries are reducing their energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP), New Zealand's export base continues to be dominated by commodities which contain a considerable energy investment, like milk powder, aluminium or even logs hauled to a port.

"The issue is how can we secure a growing economy, which needs confidence about electricity supply, when fundamentally growth is linked to generation capacity?" asked Baker.

Wind power would have an increasingly significant role in the electricity generation mix, he said, "but it doesn't fill that void in terms of security and reliability".