Five years ago I travelled around the country researching a history of New Zealand ports, which was published in 2012 as The Saltwater Highway by David Bateman. Almost every port chief executive I spoke to predicted that Auckland would be down to the Fergusson container wharf within 10 years and that in the future New Zealand would probably be able to economically accommodate only two major international ports able to take ships of increasing size - one in the North Island and one the South. They all agreed that the best deepwater port in the country is Marsden Point. But which ports would they be? No one would guess.
And, anyway, is the volume of exports and imports large enough, year-round, to warrant regular calls from these new, vast cargo vessels? At the moment, we really hub off Singapore but, given the required volume, would we be better advised to hub again off Brisbane or Sydney?
Given the huge amounts of capital required to dredge a channel through the Gulf for super-ships, were those chief executives right that Auckland should become an import port only for the needs of the city and its immediate environs? What would be the trade-off between the economic use of much of the land now occupied by the port and the cost of alternative port and rail services through inland ports, using Tauranga and/or Marsden Point?
Would it be better for the nation if we threw the capital and energy at Marsden Point and developed the notional railway that exists between the port and the Whangarei line south, requiring a very expensive upgrade of that railway right down through the isthmus? How would costs balance against the ever increasing cost of roads and their maintenance? (Roads seem to be an acceptable cost, while railways must make a profit.)
It interests me that, for example, last I checked, Fonterra sent its exports from Taranaki (a considerable dairy producing province) across the country by rail for export from Tauranga, with some going through Napier and Auckland. My information was also that Mainfreight was an enthusiastic user of railway freight.