Lee Khai Leong, a lieutenant-colonel in the Singapore Navy 180 Squadron, surveys the Malacca and Singapore straits from the bridge of a Russian-built container ship and speaks of a maritime nightmare.
Pointing to a narrow sea lane south of Singapore that carries a quarter of global trade and nearly all oil imports for Japan and China, Lee says one big attack there could hit the world economy by crippling one of Asia's most critical waterways.
"If a big ship ever grounds itself there, it would close the whole straits. There are a few other scary scenarios. But that is a big concern," he said aboard the 16,000-tonne MV Avatar, a commercial ship leased by the Singapore Navy for drills.
Maritime analysts have long warned of the far-reaching perils of such an attack: freight rates could surge 500 per cent or more as ships carrying much of Asia's oil requirements make a detour of about 1000km through the Indonesian archipelago.
Lee prefers not to discuss threats to waters that carry about 55,000 ships a year. But the Singapore Navy is preparing for the worst after violent and sophisticated pirate attacks, based largely out of Muslim neighbour Indonesia, heightened fears at Asian and Western security agencies of a seaborne terrorist strike.
Shortly after Lee spoke, the Avatar steamed past the world's largest container shipping port on Singapore's southeastern coast to within view of the oil refineries on its west coast, before slowing its engines. Lee began preparations to demonstrate a new elite unit of soldiers, police and engineering specialists who in March began boarding and securing ships deemed at the highest risk of attack.
"At the moment, we alert the ships in advance and let them know we are coming. But, in the future, we won't alert them," said Lee, declining to say how many times the new Accompanying Sea Security Teams (ASSeT) were deployed this year.
Foreign ministers from Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia will meet on the Indonesian island of Batam next month to discuss allowing commercial vessels to arm themselves, but Singapore and Malaysia are alone in providing armed escorts in their waters.
"Within Singapore's section, I would say that is well guarded, well patrolled and safe," said Michael Richardson, author of A Time Bomb for Global Trade, a book about the Malacca and Singapore straits.
"The problem is when you get into particularly the Indonesian-controlled section of the Singapore Strait and the Malacca Strait," said Richardson, now a researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
The International Maritime Bureau recorded 37 attacks in 2004 on vessels in the Malacca Strait, second only to Indonesia, which has the world's most pirate-infested coast line. Most Malacca Strait attacks occur in Malaysian or Indonesian waters.
Security analysts say the attacks highlight the need for tougher - possibly international - intervention. But Malaysia and Indonesia have cited concerns in the past over sovereignty, pointing out that the waters - just a few nautical miles wide in places - are mostly national, not international.
Fears among some states that the United States was seeking a policing role were a factor behind the launch last year of co-ordinated patrols by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.
Few are as alarmed as Singapore, which relies heavily on sea trade for its US$110 billion (S155 billion) economy and has warned repeatedly of links of piracy and terrorism after uncovering a plot in 2001 by Jemaah Islamiah militants to attack US naval ships in its waters.
- REUTERS
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